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I think that's really something that just comes with playing a lot. Eventually you'll get a feel for when the stats and ratings just don't add up, and when to trust the statistical track record in the face of bad ratings or vice versa.
I've often pondered trying to do a basic regression so I can build a stat estimator, but I've never gotten around to it since I'd rather be playing OOTP than trying to mine its secrets. :P
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