Quote:
Originally Posted by skoormit
Zero. And zero. But maybe their actual managers in MLB are less prone to pitch-hit late than is your manager. And maybe your roster is different than the Braves and Royals rosters last year.
What are your manager's tendencies? Is he a guy who likes to pinch hit an awful lot? Maybe that actual MLB manager actually would pinch hit for Andrelton or Alcides in these situations, if he had your roster.
What is the difference in batting ratings between your SS and the player that pinch-hit for him? What is the difference between the fielding ratings of your SS and the player who took his fielding spot?
The only way I could justify pinch-hitting for a great SS when I have a late lead is if a lot of the following are true:
a) my bullpen is weak and/or tired (and my SP if he is still in the game)
b) the opponent's bullpen is dominant
c) my PH is a great hitter
d) my replacement SS is decent with the glove
e) Andrelton is fatigued (or nearly so)
f) the pitchers I expect to use are very flyball prone
g) the park is very flyball prone
h) the opponent's lineup has a lot of LHB pull hitters with good power
i) I have 2 or 3 runners on base
j) I have 0 or 1 outs
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Good post this is the logical thought process I go through. Every manager is different. Got me thinking....it seems the AI has been judged according to an interpretation of "the book".
I've read earlier in the thread, "that would never happen", well what facts do you have to back that up? What "book" are you reading?Really, here are some of baseball's gems that did happen that were not supposed to happen......but DID.
1)
You fail to replace your gimpy fielder with a better defensive replacement when closing out a game to win the World Series.
In game six of the 1986 World Series with the Red Sox leading and with 2 outs, Bill Buckner stays in at 1st base despite a better defensive player Dave Stapleton, being on the bench. It wouldn't happen? Buckner lets the ball through his legs......
See the Phillies Danny Ozark not replacing Greg Luzinski with a better defensive replacement in Game 4 of the 1977 NLCS, The Phillies led 5-3 going into the 9th, with two out Manny Mota hit a drive which bounced off Luzinski setting up a Dodger winning rally.
2) You let your flame-throwing closer pitch to the opponents powerful slugger with 2 out, first base empty and a World Series place on the line.
With 2 out in the 9th, in 1985 NLCS The Dodger's led the Cardinals 5-4. They were one out from winning and advancing to the World Series. Runners on 2nd and 3rd, first base empty and the Cardinals best player Jack Clark at the plate. - what do you do? Walk Clark and pitch to Van Slyke? The Dodger didn't and Clark hits it out. Game over......It's a toss up as to the right strategy.
3) It's the 9th Inning, you are protecting a 2-1 lead with 2 outs, tying run on 2nd and your pitcher has a no hitter going.......what do you do?
Game 4 of the 1946 World Series, Yankee pitcher Bill Bevens had a no hitter with 2 out in the 9th inning, the score was 2-1..........however tying run was on 2nd base.....what do you do? Yankee Manager orders an intentional walk thus putting the winning run on base. The next batter doubled giving the Dodgers a 3-2 victory, no hitter gone, Game Over.
Bill James once wrote "the % calculations which drive strategic decisions in baseball are normally so close and complicated that it is categorically impossible to state with any assurance what the correct course of action would be"
So to say "it would never happen" ............................I'm not so sure about that, there is plenty of evidence that anything can happen with management strategies and not everyone will manage by the "book".
Whitey Herzog once said, "if a guy is good enough to be on his roster, then he is good enough to play". So if your GG short stop is replaced by a player who the AI Manager deems is going to help him, then hey - it does happen. I've only highlighted some famous second guessed moves. And in case isn't 2nd guessing part of baseball?
It seems like some are crying that "that wouldn't happen"... let me remind them, there is no crying in baseball !