1909 AL Preseason Predictions
According to my ratings below, the Red Sox are ready to challenge the three-time defending American League champion Athletics. The Red Sox won 104 games last season but still finished a jaw-dropping 14 games out of first place. However, over the offseason they upgraded their pitching staff. Rookie
Ray Collins (6-6-8 ratings) will be the team's new #4 starter while
Fred Anderson (7-6-7 ratings) begins his career in middle relief. The team has also decided to move former closer
Joe Harris (6-7, 36 Sv, 3.38 ERA) to middle relief in favor of former #1 starter
Nick Altrock (13-12, 3.52 ERA). Overall, these changes give the team a much better pitching staff and potentially the best bullpen in the league. Meanwhile, rookie shortstop
Steve Yerkes (6-6-2-6-6 ratings) will provide a significant offensive improvement over
John Goodwin (.196 AVG, 22 RBI, 45 OPS+ in 409 AB), although they are sacrificing defense with the move. And let's not forget that the team has added MLB Hall of Fame outfielder
Harry Hooper (6-6-6-7-7 ratings) to the roster, although he will initially split time in left field with veteran standout
George Stone (.298, 16 HR, 83 RBI).
After winning a record 121 games last season, Oakland is not too concerned about the chances of not repeating. Despite being upset in the World Series by St. Louis, the A's are very confident going into 1909. And they should be. After all, they have five MLB Hall of Famers on their roster, as well as several other top performers. Their #3 starting pitcher
Jimmy Dygert (17-5, 2.04 ERA) won the PoY Award and #4 starting pitcher
Tom Walker (24-2, 2.53 ERA) came one win short of tying the MLHR record of 25 wins set by
Walter Johnson the year before. The one change Oakland made was upgrading the shortstop position offensively by moving
Stuffy McInnis (8-5-3-4-9 ratings) there. Shortstop is his secondary position, but he has displayed good range and should do an acceptable job defensively while replacing
Jack Hannifin (.222, 10 HR, 35 RBI in 405 AB).
While the pennant race will almost certainly amount to a two team race, the Tigers and Yankees both have something to prove. Detroit's pitching is still a major concern, but they are expected to do much better than their last place showing last season. Offensively, they made an upgrade by adding rookie
Del Gainer (6-5-6-5-4 ratings) to first base and moving the consistently productive
Doc Gessler (.273, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 103 RBI, 17 SB) to right field, his preferred position.
As for the Yankees, they posted the best record in franchise history last season (77-85) but still did not manage a winning season. This offseason, they made yet another major upgrade to their pitching staff by adding rookies
George McConnell (7-6-7 ratings),
Russ Ford (7-6-7 ratings) and
Jack Quinn (5-6-8 ratings) to the numbers 3-4-5 spots in their rotation. That allowed them to load up an already potent bullpen with former starters
Bobby Keefe (13-11, 3.76 ERA) and
Barney Wolfe (10-19, 4.73 ERA). The Yankees believe they have a pitching staff that can stack up to the staffs in Oakland and Boston, and they could be right. However, their offense continues to be a sore spot. This offseason they added new right fielder
Clyde Engle (6-5-3-6-5 ratings, 8 range) and third baseman
Jimmy Austin (5-4-2-6-4 ratings, 8 range) who should provide both offensive and defensive improvement at their positions. However, the Yankees offense is still light years behind Oakland's and Boston's.
Minnesota hopes to get back in the race after a disappointing 96-loss season in 1908 that followed a 93-win season in 1907 in which they lost in a one-game playoff for the pennant to Oakland. Of course, Oakland added a ton of talent in 1908 and are in a different class now. That said, the Twins did continue to improve their pitching rotation around Walter Johnson (13-15, 2.76 ERA) this winter with rookie
Bob Groom (6-6-6 ratings). That allowed them to move
Beany Jacobson (7-15, 4.49 ERA), a two-time 17-game winner, to the closer's role. They also added rookies
Dixie Walker (6-6-6 ratings) and
Dolly Gray (5-6-6 ratings) to the bullpen. Offensively, the Twins added rookie
Jack Lelivelt (7-5-2-5-5 ratings) in left field, but that is far from enough to make them a pennant contender.
Predicted Standings
(Scale of 1-12)
| Rank | Team | Rotation | Bullpen | Offense | Bench | Speed | Defense | Totals | Grade | Predicted Record |
| 1 | Boston Red Sox | 7 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 8.8 | A | 104 | 58 |
| 2 | Oakland Athletics | 8 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8.7 | A | 104 | 58 |
| 3 | Detroit Tigers | 6 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7.3 | B- | 87 | 75 |
| 4 | New York Yankees | 8 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7.2 | B- | 85 | 77 |
| 5 | Minnesota Twins | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 6.6 | C+ | 78 | 84 |
| 6 | Cleveland Indians | 7 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5.8 | C | 69 | 93 |
| 7 | Baltimore Orioles | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5.3 | C- | 63 | 99 |
| 8 | Chicago White Sox | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4.9 | D+ | 58 | 104 |
MLB results for the AL in 1909
Champs: Detroit Tigers, (98-54, .588)
World Series: Cubs defeated Tigers 4-1
Combined WAR: Ty Cobb, Tigers, 9.8
Offensive WAR: Ty Cobb, Tigers, 9.5
Defensive WAR: Freddy Parent, White Sox, 2.5
Batting Title: Ty Cobb, Tigers, .377
Runs: Ty Cobb, Tigers, 116
RBI: Ty Cobb, Tigers, 107
SB: Ty Cobb, Tigers, 76
OPS+: Ty Cobb, Tigers, 193
AB/HR: Ty Cobb, Tigers, 63.7
Pitching WAR: Cy Morgan, Red Sox and Athletics, 6.8
Win%: George Mullin, Tigers, .784
WHIP: Ed Walsh, White Sox, 0.938
K/9: Heinie Berger, Naps (Indians), 5.903
Innings: Frank Smith, White Sox, 365.0
Shutouts: Ed Walsh, White Sox, 8
K/BB: Chief Bender, Athletics, 3.578
ERA+: Harry Krause, Athletics, 174
FIP: Chief Bender, Athletics, 1.58