1909 NL Preseason Predictions
The National League is going through a transitional period. While the league still has more depth overall than the American League, the NL has seen many of its top stars retire over the past five years. While they have seen several talented young players join the league recently as well, the AL rookies have captured most of the headlines. That said, there is a lot of young talent in the NL today. The combination of the established stars leaving and new stars entering the league is causing a steady upheaval in the status quo.
The two teams who should benefit most by this changing of the guard are the Reds and Giants. Cincinnati has one of the top pitching staffs in the league, but they have struggled to find their way in recent years, so it is difficult to say that this will be the year that they finally put it all together. The fact that they now have one of the top defenses in the league should help their pitchers' cause. Plus their offense is now considered to be one of the best and deepest out there.
The Giants also have a talented pitching rotation that has consistently failed to live up to expectations. The team's defense has improved this year, so we will see if that is enough for this unit to finally perform. This team is young and has one of the best offenses in the league. While their bullpen has improved on paper, it is still one of the weakest relief corps around. If their starting rotation can perform well and go deep into games, their offense should be good enough to overcome their bullpen weaknesses. But, those are a lof of "if's."
The safe money is on Pittsburgh winning the pennant this season. They are established and solid all around. Their pitching staff is beginning to age, but they still have plenty of talent. They were very disappointed to win just 87 games and finish in second place by three games last year. Perhaps that is enough motivation for them to take control of the race. After all, they have the most veteran team in the league now.
The defending World Champion Cardinals were not expected to win the pennant last season, and they look like long shots on paper again this year. Three key contributors did retire after the World Series in catcher
Jack Doyle, right fielder
Jimmy Bannon and starting pitcher
Amos Rusie. They expect 24-year-old outfielder
Red Murray (.248, 5 HR, 17 RBI in 258 AB) and 25-year-old reliever-turned-starter
Art Fromme (2-1, 4.68 ERA in 25 IP) to make up for most of that lost production. Even though they are ranked 5th in my ratings below, I believe they are more likely to finish in 3rd place than the young Giants are.
The Cubs and Phillies are also both still legitimate threats, but their teams have aged in recent years and some cracks are showing. It is unlikely that Philadelphia will be a true pennant contender, but Chicago should be. If they can avoid the slow start they had last season, the Cubs should find themselves in the race until the end. Their offense may be the best in the NL, as usual, but their pitching staff is a big concern.
Predicted Standings
(Scale of 1-12)
| Rank | Team | Rotation | Bullpen | Offense | Bench | Speed | Defense | Totals | Grade | Predicted Wins |
| 1a | Cincinnati Reds | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.1 | B+ | 94 | 68 |
| 1b | Pittsburgh Pirates | 7 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8.1 | B+ | 94 | 68 |
| 3 | San Francisco Giants | 8 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7.7 | B | 89 | 73 |
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | 6 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 7.3 | B- | 84 | 78 |
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7.0 | B- | 81 | 81 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6.8 | C+ | 79 | 83 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 6.1 | C | 71 | 91 |
| 8 | Atlanta Braves | 6 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4.9 | D+ | 57 | 105 |
MLB results for the NL in 1909
Champs: Pittsburgh Pirates, (110-42, .724)
World Series: Pirates defeated Tigers 4-3
Combined WAR: Honus Wagner, Pirates, 9.2
Offensive WAR: Honus Wagner, Pirates, 8.2
Defensive WAR: Joe Tinker, Cubs, 3.0
Batting Title: Honus Wagner, Pirates, .339
Runs: Tommy Leach, Pirates, 126
RBI: Honus Wagner, Pirates, 100
SB: Bob Bescher, Reds, 54
OPS+: Honus Wagner, Pirates, 177
AB/HR: Red Murray, Giants, 81.4
Pitching WAR: Christy Mathewson, Giants, 9.2
Win%: Christy Mathewson, Giants and Howie Camnitz, Pirates, .806
WHIP: Christy Mathewson, Giants, 0.828
K/9: Orval Overall, Cubs, 6.474
Innings: Mordecai Brown, Cubs, 342.2
Shutouts: Orval Overall, Cubs, 9
K/BB: Christy Mathewson, Giants, 4.139
ERA+: Christy Mathewson, Giants, 222
FIP: Christy Mathewson, Giants, 1.62
MLHR Milestone Watch
3000 Hits
Joe Kelley, ATL, Age 37, 2992 Hits
2500 Hits
Fred Clarke, PIT, Age 36, 2476 Hits
1500 RBI
Nap Lajoie, PHI, Age 33, 1458 RBI
Bill Lange, CHN, Age 36, 1443 RBI
600 Stolen Bases
Joe Kelley, ATL, Age 37, 594 SB
200 Wins
Rube Waddell, PIT, Age 33, 199 Wins
Ned Garvin, PHI, Age 35, 196 Wins
3500 Strikeouts
Rube Waddell, PIT, Age 33, 3400 K's
3000 Strikeouts
Ned Garvin, PHI, Age 35, 2990 K's
Buttons Briggs, CHN, Age 33, 2904 K's
300 Saves
Martin Glendon, CIN, Age 31, 260 Sv
700 Games Pitched
Ted Lewis, ATL, Age 36, 689 Games