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December 2014 - January 2015
The months of December and January were defined by injuries to the forward core, development from the youngsters and decline in the veterans. The overall result was that the Sabres generally held their own, posting a 9-12-5 record for the two months. Goals were still hard to come by, but the club is now scoring at a higher pace than last year's team, so there is reason for optimism. The Sabres remain 30th overall, 6 points behind the 29th place team. The increase in scoring has come at a cost - goals against are up about 10% over last season - but that may be the price of developing prospects at the NHL level.
The goaltending picture has settled itself out. Michal Neuvirth has separated himself from Jonas Enroth and now gets the bulk of the starts. His stats aren't much better than Enroth's overall, but he as shown an ability to win games while Enroth is almost always the losing goalie in the game summary. Accordingly, Neuvirth was inked to a three year extension in January at $2.8 million per season. The development of Ville Husso in Rochester has sealed Enroth's fate - he will be traded or allowed to leave as an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
The defence managed to remain healthy for the first long stretch in memory, but we were plagued instead by inconsistent play from them as a group. Tyler Myers and Christian Erhoff still line up as the top pair and are solid most nights, although it is pretty obvious when they struggle that they would be a second pairing on a good team. Jamie McBain and Rasmus Ristolainen have settled in as an all-offence second pairing. When they are good, they are very good but, as you might expect from young defencemen, when they're bad they are dreadful. Mike Weber is playing the steady tutor to 19 yr-old Nikita Zadorov on the third pair and most nights they hold their own. Zadorov is growing game by game and actually has the best plus/minus stat of all the Sabres defencemen.
Up front, a forward group already thinned out by the off-season defections of Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno suffered through a multitude of injuries in late December and early January. Top wingers Drew Stafford and Chris Stewart missed about 3 weeks each, forcing some lineup shuffling. Somehow through all the turmoil, Cody Hodgson turned in a solid performance, vaulting into the club scoring lead (16g, 16a), a point ahead of the years' biggest surprise story, rookie Johan Larsson (11g, 20a). Larsson has been excellent, leading the team in PP points and serving on the PK as well. In December, he was signed to a five year extension worth $15.4 million. Joel Armia (12g, 18a) ranks 3rd as he continues his fine rookie season while veteran Drew Stafford (12g, 15a) is 4th despite missing time to an injury. The real surprise of Dec-Jan games has been 19 yr-old Nikita Scherbak, who would have been back in junior this season if the Sabres had been given the choice. Scherbak now ranks 5th in team scoring (11g, 15a) and is 2nd in plus/minus behind Riley Sheahan. Scherbak's surge in development has accompanied the decline in performance of Chris Stewart (10g, 8a although injured most of January) and Zemgus Girgensons (9g, 9a), whose production has fallen off dramatically after a decent start. The aforementioned Sheahan (9g, 8a) has proven his worth as a bottom six forward and penalty killer and is producing a solid season. The other noteworthy development is the story of Ville Leino who is playing himself off the roster and will likely be bought out in the offseason.
On the Farm/Prospect Watch
In the AHL, Rochester is leading its division on the strength of the incredible season being put together by 19-yr old Ville Husso in goal. Husso ranks second in the AHL in goals against and save percentage as of Feb. 1st. He is probably better right now than either of the Sabres goalies but his time wil have to wait until a vacancy is created. At this point, the Sabres expect him to win the starting job for 2015-16 wih the NHL club. Also contrubuting to Rochester's success is 1st year pro Logan Nelson, a center who is developing nicely and ranks 5th in the AHL scoring race. Fellow rookie J.T.Compher is having a solid pro debut and won't turn 20 until April. He is second on the club in scoring. Mikhail Grigorenko is showing that he is a legitmate scoring threat at the pro level and may be poised to have a big finish to his rookie season since the scouting reports reveal that he is vastly improved since the beginning of the season. Rugged winger William Carrier has battled injuries but is playing solidly and has also drawn praise from the scouts recently. On defence, Jake McCabe has an unimpressive stat line and isn't playing badly but our scouts are clearly disappointed with his progress so far.
The big news regarding the players drafted last summer concerns top pick Aaron Ekblad, a defenceman with Barrie in the OHL. Ekblad has been showing good growth, enjoying a good season and looking ready to challenge for a spot on the Sabres blueline next year. All that came to an abrupt end January 25th when Ekblad suffered a knee injury that may keep him sidelined until after Christmas 2015. This is a potentially large blow to the rebuild if Ekblad cannot get back on track after his recovery and reach his potential. On a more positive note, our other 1st rounder from 2014, Leon Draisaitl, continues to lead the WHL in scoring. His development has our scouts projecting him into the lineup no later than 2016-17 and perhaps before. Swedish winger Anton Karlsson, one of our 2nd rounders last summer, is still only practicing with his Swedish club team. Our scouts are very concerned that his development is being stalled by lack of competitive experience. Fifth round pick Brendan Lemieux has tailed off his fast start but is still playing in all situations and ranks 2nd on Barrie in scoring, Jan Mandat, drafted in the 7th round, leads his QMJHL team in scoring but doesn't seem to be developing very much. We may need to see him play as a minor pro with Rochester next year before we know exactly what we have in him.
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