[swoboda]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Are wasted pitches really wasted in that sense though? A few things:

1. A sizeable amount of the time, a guy protecting the plate on an 0-2 count will in fact go after a ball a foot out of the strike zone and either whiff or hit an easily catchable ball. Those instances aren't wasted at all.

2. Often, too, a so-called wasted pitch will actually be setting the batter up for something either on the next pitch or perhaps further in the game. Say a pitcher throws a fastball that misses the corner by half a foot, then on the very next pitch throws a slider which comes out looking like it's just a slower version of that same exact fastball but then nips back into he plate at the last second. Without that first pitch, the second is just a breaking ball.

3. I think you may be overestimating the amount of control most pitchers have. For instance, a lot of breaking pitches aren't really aimed at all except that there's a general desire to get them over the plate. If a pitcher feels that his curve is his out pitch but snaps it off on an 0-2 count, the result could be something way in the dirt, but that doesn't mean that's where it was intended to go.

4. On the flip side, what looks like a wasted pitch to those of us watching from the centerfield camera or the stands looks entirely different from the batter's box. An extreme example I can think of was Randy Johnson facing the last batter of his no-hitter with the Mariners. He "climbed the ladder" on the hitter (kind of a version of point #2; basically, the idea is to throw a rising fastball a little bit higher and higher on each successive pitch - it works deadly well if the hitter in question can't ferret out the rise) and the last pitch, which the guy swung at, I should add, was literally over the batter's head. A wasted pitch? Try Out #27.

As noted, I do think that pitchers not using the classic windup so much anymore is one big thing that affects durability. You're not necessarily able to throw much faster when you wind up, but you do involve your entire body in the torque required to get the velocity you need rather than just your arm, and I have to think that for many pitchers, that's going to expose that wing to more abuse, regardless of the number of pitches he throws.

Syd you make some good pts particularly about setup pitches but the facts are not all on your side....Fact: .the number of pitches per game is up over the years. here is a link to a baseball reference chart demonstrating this

The average number of pitches thrown per game is rising » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive

It's a combo of batters trying to work the count so that teams can get to and exploit the weakest part of the staff, the middle inning relievers, and startting pitchers nibbling too much and of course my original point wasting pitches

When the pitcher is ahead in the count work the corners, don't go way off the plate, these are MLB hitters, the overwhelming majority of whom are more disciplined than Pablo Sandoval and they do not chase the stuff that is clearly out of the zone.