Quote:
Originally Posted by SirMichaelJordan
Yea it seems too "gamey" to me. Something you'll see in Madden.
What would it be? A probability of a player becoming a sure thing or not? How accurate would that be?
"This guy has a 80 potential but his boom/bust factor is 40"
if anything, boom/bust factor should be tied into work ethic/intelligence if its not already.
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This is the kind of thing scouts write up all the time.
There are some prospects that are high floor, low ceiling guys, and others that are high potential, high risk, and you see allusion to it all the time in scouting reports. For example, lots of power hitters with big swings struggle with handling breaking pitches; if they figure them out, the potential is huge, if they can't, they stop at AAA. A guy who already has a tight compact swing and already hits breaking balls well can still improve, but its the difference in improving on something you already do well vs. on something you can't do at all -- the latter guy has more room to grow. A guy who struggles with focus and concentration is more of a boom/bust prospect than one who doesn't. Etc.
In general, a lot of the things that scouts can and do project aren't projected in OOTP -- there are some pitchers that have the body to add a few mph to the fastball, and others that don't. There are some defenders that have room to improve, there are some that have maxed out. Personally, I'd like to see all of them projected (and things like batting eye not projected, because it isn't); Failing that, especially high boom/bust potential could be reflected in the scouting reports.