Thread: Moneyball II
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Old 03-30-2014, 05:01 PM   #119
Hendu Style
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Chapter 40
The Number You Have Called is Disconnected...


When Billy Beane calls, it's best you don't pick up the phone. Time and time again, Billy pulls off a deal that looks great at the time for the other team, but ends up being a windfall for his A's a year later. Sure, there are exceptions. Take last season's swap with the Cleveland Indians. San Jose gave Cleveland its new closer (Andrew Brockett: 2.36 ERA, 36 saves), a premiere setup man (Mike Harris: 1.92 ERA in 62 appearances), a great utility infielder (Luis Alejandro Basabe: .321 career average in 91 games), plus veteran third baseman Ronnie Gideon and minor league slugger Mike Benson (.293, 34 HR, 102 RBI in Class-A Carolina)... all for one prospect, pitcher Vicente Cortez. But by and large, opposing GM's have come up with pie in their eye.


Take Billy's most recent trade. Just days after the end of the season, and weeks before Salary Arbitration and Free Agency, he struck a deal that, on its face, looks like a steal for Arizona:


SAN JOSE GETS:
SP Gio Piontelli (9-13, 3.95 ERA, 168.2 IP, 194 K in Class-A ball)


ARIZONA GETS:
SP Cliff Jensen (13-6, 3.88 ERA, 213.2 IP, 154 K)
3B B.A. Vollmuth (.262, 27 HR, 83 RBI)
P Calvin Carter (2-0, 5.87 ERA in 17 appearances)
P Tony Blanford (3-6, 3.67 ERA in 29 appearances, 12 starts)
P Alex Meyer (0-0, 0.00 ERA in 3 appearances)


So the Diamondbacks get a starting pitcher with two years of arbitration left in Jensen. A #3 hitter in Vollmuth entering the last year of his contract. And three setup men in Carter, Blanford, and Meyer, all of whom could be used as starters if there's an opening in their rotation. All for a touted sinkerball pitcher in the low minors.


But look closer at what the A's had to give up in the first place, to make this trade possible:


CLIFF JENSEN:
Acquired last winter from Boston for Travis d'Arnaud, Jonathan Singleton, Joe Ross, and Dorin Leonte. D'Arnaud just finished the last year of a contract that paid him $8.75 million, and he underperformed by hitting .231 with 7 homeruns. The A's found a more than capable replacement for d'Arnaud in Rule 5 pick Jorge Alfaro, who was a big upgrade behind the dish and hit .260 with 21 homers in his first season as a regular. Singleton had a solid season for the BoSox, hitting .287 with 20 homers, but would've been a pinch-hitter at best for the A's, given their glut of first basemen and DH's. The A's never gave up anything for Singleton to begin with, signing him as a free agent and getting a stellar .291, 27 HR, 69 RBI season from him in 2020. Ross and Leonte spent most of the season in the minors and are both past their primes.


B.A. VOLLMUTH:
Acquired straight up for Michael Pineda from the Yankees last winter. Pineda put together a respectable 10-4, 4.22 ERA, 138.2 IP in 21 starts before being shelved with an oblique injury. Considering that Pineda was a free agent signing by the A's (with no compensatory pick), Vollmuth essentially came free to San Jose from New York.


CALVIN CARTER, TONY BLANFORD:
A pair of borderline starters, solid relievers acquired from Cleveland for third baseman Matt Dominguez. Like Pineda, Dominguez was another shrewd free agent signing, and when the A's landed Corey Seager, he became expendable. Again, two assets who came to San Jose for essentially nothing nothing but a free agent signing.


ALEX MEYER:
This is typical Billy right here. He signed Meyer to a 3-year contract (at a relatively cheap $2.8 million per season) while the pitcher was rehabbing from elbow surgery. He was an insurance policy in case any of the A's young pitchers faltered in the bullpen. They did not, so Meyer suddenly became expendable.


So you add all of that up... the actual cost for the A's to produce Jensen, Vollmuth, Carter, Blanford, and Meyer... in return for a coveted pitching prospect, they actually gave up close to nothing. Four guys signed in free agency to cheap contracts (Dominguez, Pineda, Meyer, Singleton), an aging and overpaid catcher (d'Arnaud), and two borderline big league relievers (Ross, Leonte). It's not the art of the deal. It's the art of the flip. Billy is a real estate speculator. He sees undervalued assets on the open market, and buys them up in bulk. Some pan out. Others do not. But he builds up a cadre of these strip mall assets, bundles them all together, and gets undeveloped oceanfront property in return.


In the process in the Piontelli trade, the A's also slashed an estimated $24.5 million in payroll. Yes, Arizona will be much better off for the 2023 season. They came up one win short of a second straight World Series appearance, and this move could very well put them over the top next year. But the A's have so much depth in their roster and farm system, none of the players traded away figures to be missed. Jensen will be replaced in the rotation by "Can't Miss" prospect Tommy Alford. Vollmuth will be replaced in the lineup by a combination of rotating players at 1B, 3B, and DH... a position of great strength for San Jose. The three other pitchers? All easily replaced by an incoming crop of studs from Sacramento.

And, who knows? Maybe Billy might just find another diamond in the rough during the offseason. While other teams are doling out $200 million contracts, the A's will be in the bargain bin, gobbling up its next batch of players to sell off to an unsuspecting team.


But still, people keep up picking up the phone when Billy calls. And that's why the A's keep winning year after year after year.
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Previous OOTP Dynasties:
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