[rpriske]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

The problem with this is that there is no way to determine the statistical probability of a successful steal in real life. Sabermetricians can cite every conceivable stat from the past, but that says nothing about the present circumstance. No mathematical or statistical model can be applied to the present to predict the result. Not rationally. This is because the assumption that future results will resemble past outcomes is a logical fallacy.

I like your post in general, but we disagree about this. You CAN have an idea about how likely someone will be safe when stealing. I would argue that EVERY manager who gives the steal sign DOES have an idea about how likely it is that the runner will be safe.

Now, it doesn't mean he is RIGHT and that is why we have 'fog of war' with the ratings. They aren't the REAL ratings. They are what our scout THINKS they are.

All I am asking is what that means. If a scout says he thinks a player is a 15 base stealer... what does he MEAN by that? How likely does he think it is that the player will be safe, on average?

To say that the scout doesn't know that is just wrong. This is no different than a scout saying that he thinks a player will be a .250 hitter or a .300 hitter.

So... what does he mean?