[rpriske]

I asked this once when I first starting playing and was told that I "shouldn't know" this.

That didn't make any sense to me then, but I was new so I let it slide.


My question is, what is the calculation to decide the odds of successfully stealing a base? This is something that we SHOULD know because that tells us what we are looking at when we look at the numbers.

Does a 15 STL rating mean a baseline of a 75% safe percentage? How is this affected by a catcher's arm? How is this affected by a pitcher's hold rating? How is this affected by a runner's speed?

I have been trying to get a good idea of this on my own, but the results I am getting don't make any sense.

For example, in a game last night I had two different base runners each try and steal twice each and get thrown out (collectively) all four times. Bother runner had stealing ratings and speed ratings of 15/15 and 15/14. The catcher's arm was a 9. The pitcher's hold rating was a 1. To me, these numbers look like an IDEAL time to run... but they were 0 for 4.

I know what percentage is worth it for me, but I have no idea what ratings turn into what percentage (and IRL, I certainly would).

Also, are those odds era-dependant? I find that in my 1902 league, despite the stats being heavily weighted in the runners favour, they are much more likely to get thrown out than in my modern league, where the ratings are not so lopsided.