Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson
A save can be blown in any inning in any situation, and definitely not all save situations are created equally. That's why it's impossible to use saves in a WAR context. As an example look at Mark Eichhorn from 1986. 14-5, 1.72 ERA, 157.0 IP, 7.4 rWAR, but only 10/14 in save situations. His running mate Tom Henke had a slightly better save percentage at 27/35, and went 9-5, 3.35 ERA, 91.1 IP, but only 1.5 rWAR. Eichhorn was pitching earlier in the game and probably in the higher leverage situations, which is what led to a higher blown save rate, but clearly he was the more valuable pitcher. Henke's stuff is what led to his use as a closer, but hitters could not touch Eichhorn (at least not that year) and his funky sidearm delivery.
|
Right, this is extremely important. WAR is based heavily on runs, and for pitchers, runs allowed. Since a pitcher can blow a save while being perfect (enter with a one-run lead, runner on third, less than two outs, allow a sac fly and get all other batters faced out), you can see how a blown save has nothing to do with calculating WAR.