Quote:
Originally Posted by JMDurron
That's not a problem with WAR, it's a problem with saves. If Sanchez blew 4 3-run saves where he entered with clean innings, while the available replacement player blew 10 saves, 8 of which were 1-run games where he entered with the tying run on 2nd with nobody out, then there's basically no discernable difference between the pitchers beyond the game states that were arbitrarily generated for them by their teammates.
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Plus, that's not even how WAR works. It's not a comparison to the specific backup closer. It's a comparison to a hypothetical "replacement level" MLB player. Not to mention that WAR is a much more complicated mathematical equation than just "Player A blown saves minus Player B blown saves = WAR".