Originally Posted by Orcin
Free Agency Begins
Top 10 Free Agents (age shown as of April 2021):
• SP Jake Odorizzi (31/R, 2020 @ TBA: 18-14, 3.68, 245 IP, 253 K)
• 2B Jurickson Profar (28/S, 2020 @ TEX: .302/.372/.455)
• SP Max Hicks (30/R, 2020 @ MIA: 8-9, 3.82, 233 IP, 212 K)
• SP Taylor Guerrieri (28/R, 2020 @ MIL/BOS: 15-12, 3.78, 221 IP, 189 K)
• 3B David Wright (38/R, 2020 @ NYN: .282/.378/.454)
• C Alex Avila (34/L, 2020 @ TEX: .264/.362/.485)
• SS Corey Seager (27/L, 2020 @ LAN: .311/.350/.477)
• SP Mike Leake (34/R, 2020 @ CHN: 14-10, 3.22, 240 IP, 141 K)
• 2B Matt Cerda (31/L, 2020 @ KC: .293/.401/.399)
• 2B Jonathan Schoop (29/R, 2020 @ KC/TOR: .288/.342/.472)
Will Cardinals Make a Big Splash in Free Agency?
The best way to build confidence among the fans in my new town would be to land the top player in free agency. This idea aligns perfectly with my top priority action item:
• Pursue an ace pitcher in free agency
I removed the question mark from this action item, because I have decided to do it. I will need to trade CF Jackie Bradley Jr. in order to afford the top pitcher, and I believe that is the best approach. I have been convinced since day one that the Cardinals have too much of the salary budget devoted to position players.
Fortunately, I can pursue the two actions in parallel because I have the available budget until I commit to a contract extension for RF Oscar Taveras. I also have the flexibility to trade Bradley now, after the acquisition of CF Vance Knox.
The next question is… which pitcher? I don’t like Guerrieri’s injury history or Leake’s age, so it comes down to Jake Odorozzi or Max Hicks. Odorizzi is a year older and about 10% more expensive. It also appears to me that Odorizzi is about 10% better.
Key career stats:
Height: Odorizzi 6’2”, Hicks 5’ 11”
ERA/ ERA+: Odorizzi 3.48/125; Hicks 3.60/117
WHIP/BABIP: Odorizzi 1.17/.292; Hicks 1.26/.308
K/9: Odorizzi 9.2, Hicks 8.5
BB/9: Odorizzi 2.8, Hicks 2.9
K/BB: Odorizzi 3.3, Hicks 2.9
HR/9: Odorizzi 0.8, Hicks 0.8
FIP: Odorizzi 3.30, Hicks 3.49
Quality Starts: Odorizzi 64%, Hicks 62%
All-Star selections: Odorizzi 3, Hicks 0
It should come as no surprise that four teams (KC, NYN, HOU, SF) are rumored to be in on Odorizzi already, while Hicks has four different suitors (LAA, SEA, CHN, CLE). The competition will be fierce for these two pitchers. If a team loses on one, they will likely jump to the other. So I must act swiftly (before the Winter Meetings) and decisively (i.e. make my best offer and don’t nibble).
The average of the top five pitchers in baseball is $20M per year. Odorizzi is currently asking for 7 years, $133M ($19M/year). Hicks wants 7 years, $119M ($17M/years). The range for either of these two given the competition is likely at least six years and over $100M. Either will cost us our #1 pick in the 2021 draft.
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