Thread: Moneyball II
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Old 12-15-2013, 03:38 AM   #74
Hendu Style
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Chapter 29
Playing a Hunch

The prognosticators had called for a tight race in the American League West in 2017. And for once, the so-called experts were actually right.

The Angels were loaded with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton in the middle of the order, plus the free agent acquisition of former A's pitcher Brett Anderson. The Rangers had added first baseman Freddie Freeman from Atlanta through free agency, as well as Arizona pitcher Daniel Hudson. Seattle's young core of pitchers -- Kyle Hunter, Vance Worley, and Brett Oberholtzer -- had developed into strong complements to ace Felix Hernandez.

All three teams, plus the A's, would win at least 86 games during the regular season. All but one would reach the postseason.

The A's seemed like a team just biding their time. Sharing the Giants' AT&T Park in San Francisco, the A's were waiting for their new $500 million stadium in the South Bay to be constructed. Reigning Cy Young winner Jarrod Parker went 15-12, posting an uncharacteristically high 3.93 ERA. Taijuan Walker's 4.75 ERA was the worst of his Major League career. The A's starting rotation, considered the best in baseball over the last decade, had a collective ERA of 4.20.

The bullpen wasn't much better. Mark Montgomery, Jeurys Familia, and Ryan Cook all held the closer's role at different points in the season. Montgomery and Familia failed spectacularly in their stints, while Cook finally gave the A's some consistency towards the end of the season.

Despite the unimpressive campaign by the pitching staff, the A's remained competitive in 2017 for one reason: Justin Upton.

Though he had come to the Bay Area as a highly sought-after free agent, Upton never really considered himself a franchise player. He had become one when he hit .334 with 31 homers in his walk year in 2015 in Atlanta. And in 2017, he showed the A's they were right to commit so many million dollars to the Norfolk, Virginia native.

On June 1st, Upton went 0-for-6 with 4 strikeouts in a frustrating 14-inning loss to the Padres. His batting average dipped to .291, with 11 homeruns and 31 RBI. Not bad numbers... he was actually doing well. But Upton wanted to do better. He had a lengthy after game discussion with A's hitting coach Marino Santana.

Santana's star has been on the rise in the A's organization, first as the manager of Oakland's class-A affiliate in Beloit, and then as a mid-season replacement as the A's hitting coach in 2015. The following year, the A's bumped their collective batting average from .249 to .261. Santana was earning trust within the A's clubhouse.

The conversation between Upton and Santana centered on the hitter's wrists, rolling over too late in the swing. It was an amazingly simple observation by the hitting coach; one that seemed so obvious to him but never registered with Upton. Santana took Upton through a BP session after the talk, and it immediately clicked.

Not coincidentally, the A's were 27-27 after the San Diego loss, tied for 3rd place in the AL West. After that game, he went on a 7-game hitting streak, recording multi-hit games in all but one of those contests. By the end of the month, his batting average had climbed to .320. At the end of July, his average was up to .345. He finished the regular season with a Major League-best .342 average while belting a career-best 41 homeruns. If not for Corey Seager's 127 RBI, Upton could very well have had himself a Triple Crown.

The A's entered the final weekend of the season at 89-70, just 2 games behind the first place Los Angeles Angels, and two games ahead of third place Texas. A sweep of the Angels would give the A's the AL West title. Anything else would send them to the AL Wildcard against the Rangers.

Unfortunately for the A's, there would be no drama in the final series of the regular season. Parker was shelled for 6 runs and got the hook after retiring just one batter in the second inning. An 8-5 loss doomed the A's to another season of having to play their way in to a playoff series.

Instead of going with his ace, or even second-best starter, manager Bob Melvin decided to buck the odds and go with Michael Pineda for the one-game Wildcard. The way he figured it, if the A's won, they would have a fresh rotation for the division playoffs. Plus, why not put the ball in the hand of the guy earning $28 million this season?

"I look forward to proving I am worth the money the A's have given me," Pineda said at the end of the regular season. "I will not disappoint them."

He certainly did not. Pineda surrendered just one run and struck out eight in a gutsy 7-plus inning effort in which he gave up eleven hits. Cavan Biggio, who had taken over starting second baseman duties with Didi Gregorius out for the year with a concussion, hit a 3-run homer in the second to lift the A's to a 3-1 victory.

Beating the Rangers in a one-game Wildcard was one thing. Now they had to get past a Baltimore Oriole squad that led the majors with a 98-64 mark in the regular season. Dylan Bundy, the prohibitive favorite to win the 2017 Cy Young, shut down the A's lineup in Game 1, striking out 12 in an 8-1 victory.

"We took one on the chin tonight," A's starter Jarrod Parker said after the game. "If we're going to win this series, we've got to find a way to grind out a win tomorrow night."

Cliff Jensen answered the call. Limited to just 15 starts during the regular season (12 with the A's, 3 in AAA Sacramento), Jensen gave the A's a much-needed fresh arm after missing half the season with a ruptured finger tendon. The A's had given up so much to get Jensen, sending Dan Straily, BJ Maxwell, David Dahl, and a pair of minor leaguers to St. Louis for him. While Straily struggled to an 8-win/4.86 ERA campaign with the Cardinals, Maxwell (.294, 17 HR) blossomed into a starting catcher, and Dahl hit a respectable .251 as a backup outfielder. A's general manager David Forst had hitched his wagon to Jensen, and now so were the A's.

Jensen was clutch. A 7 inning, 7 strikeout effort helped the A's take Game 2 of the ALDS, and they eventually won the series, 3 games to 2. Now only the Cleveland Indians stood between the A's and a return trip to the World Series.

Jensen was strong in Game 1, supported by homeruns from Mark Trumbo and Matt Olson in a 4-3 victory. Taijuan Walker's 7 shutout innings in Game 2 and Michael Pineda's masterful complete game, 11 strikeout gem in Game 3 gave the A's a 3-0 series lead.

Following a "hunch" in Game 4, Melvin decided to give the nod to Sonny Gray for the potential sweep and clincher. Considering Gray had pitched in nothing but relief appearances since the end of June, this was indeed a hunch. And while hunches had gone well for the two-time manager of the year in the past, there were some doubts, especially after a similar gamble in the previous season's postseason. It was then that Melvin decided to hand over the closer's job to Mark McDonald after Carlos Marmol had faltered late in the season. McDonald famously blew a late inning lead in the 2016 playoffs to end the season.

Again, this time, Melvin's hunch didn't pan out. Gray was tattooed for five runs on nine hits and didn't make it out of the 5th inning, as the Indians avoided the sweep with a 13-9 win. Even more doubt began to creep in when Cleveland won Game 5, 9-7, to force a Game 6 in Cleveland at Progressive Field.

Any doubts, though, were put to rest in a commanding performance by the neophyte Jensen. He limited Cleveland's feared 3-4 hitters Corey Seager and Jason Heyward (.278, 39 HR, 127 RBI; .263, 28 HR, 100 RBI respectively) to a collective 2-for-8 with no extra basehits in a 5-0 shutout victory.

The A's were headed to the World Series for a second year in a row.

Meanwhile, there was another Bay Area team with championship hopes of its own. The San Francisco Giants, a Wildcard qualifier thanks to a 90-72 regular season, had dispatched the Mets in the NL Wildcard, and the Miami Marlins in the NL Division Series. AT&T Park was awash in playoff fever as the A's and Giants alternated days during the League Championship Series. One day after the A's had clinched the ALCS in Cleveland, the Giant won Game 7 of the NLCS against the Cardinals back home in San Francisco.

The A's and Giants were set to square off against each other in a World Series like no other.
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Beane Counting: The Oakland A's

Last edited by Hendu Style; 12-15-2013 at 10:36 PM.
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