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Your question is a bit confusing. Also, I am not an expert. However, until one comes along with a definitive answer, I will give you my opinion at least (and bump the thread).
My answer (if I read your question correctly) is this: The AI is merely informing you of the defensive situation without regard to your baserunner's speed and skill. It's not like it's warning you, "Hey, your runner is slower than a tortoise and the RF has a rifle for an arm so you'd better not try it!"
No, it's up to you to know your baserunner and, given the input from the AI at that point, decide whether to send him or not. Only once you make that decision will the outcome be determined based on all of the factors involved, including your baserunner's speed and skill. You may have had the idea that the AI has already determined the outcome prior to the play, having read your baserunner's ratings, and I don't think that is the case.
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- Bru
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