I simulated the next five years to see if they continue to decline or if it was just a fluke (Since they’re at the age of what should be the prime of their careers). Looks like it wasn’t to be the case.
2023 NHL DRAFT, YEARS 11-15
1. Yury Morozov, LD/RD, Ability 10.0/ Potential 12.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 9.0 / Potential 9.0 (-1 Ability, -3.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 9.0 / Potential 9.0 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 8.5 / Potential 8.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 8.0 / Potential 8.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 8.0 / Potential 8.0 (No change)
2. Jonathan Berggren, LD, Ability 8.0 / Potential 8.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 13 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (No change)
3. Theodore McCoy, G, Ability 8.5 / Potential 10.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 8.0 / Potential 8.0 (-.5 Ability, -2 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 13 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 6.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
4. Denis Vasilyev, LD, Ability 8.0 / Potential 10.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 8.0 / Potential 10.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 10.5 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 13 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (-3 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (No change)
5. Mika Stenroos, LW, Ability 7.0 / Potential 9.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 9.5 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 12 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 9.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (-.5 Ability, -3.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (No change)
6. Jimmy Bush, RD, Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (No change)
7. Mathieu Renaud, LD, Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
8. Tyler Robitaille, C, Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
9. Roy Pruitt, RW, Ability 6.5 / Potential 6.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 13 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
10. Andrey Tyulyapkin, RW, Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 13 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
11. Jeffrey Haith, RD, Ability 9.0 / Potential 9.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 8.0 / Potential 8.0 (-.5 Ability, -1.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 8.0 / Potential 8.0 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 8.0 / Potential 8.0 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (No change)
12. Max Adams, LD, Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 –
RETIRED
13. Zack Paletta, LW, Ability 6.5 / Potential 7.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 7.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 7.5 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 13 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (-1.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
14. Alfred Forsmark, Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 3.0 / Potential 3.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
15. Geoff Wensink, LD, Ability 8.0 / Potential 9.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 8.0 / Potential 9.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 9.5 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 13 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 9.5 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (-2 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
16. Luca Ryan, C, Ability 6.0 / Potential 8.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 8.5 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 12 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 8.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (-.5 Ability, -3.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (No change)
17. Mario Schmitt, C, Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (No change)
18. Jesse Ventura, C, Ability 6.5 / Potential 7.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 7.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 7.5 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 13 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 7.5 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 7.5 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 7.5 (No change)
19. Kennet Englund, C, Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 7.0 (-1 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 13 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 14 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (-1.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
20. Andrey Yashin, LW, Ability 6.0 / Potential 8.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 8.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 5.5/ Potential 8.5 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 13 - Ability 5.5/ Potential 5.5 (-3 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 5.5/ Potential 5.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.0/ Potential 5.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
21. Andrey Pancheshny, C, Ability 3.0 / Potential 3.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (No change)
RETIRED
22. Kevin Kelly, RW, Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 6.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
23. Daniil Ignashin, G, Ability 5.5 / Potential 8.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 8.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0 (-.5 Ability, -3.5 Potential)
YEAR 13 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
24. Mirco Schumann, LW, Ability 3.0 / Potential 3.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 3.0 / Potential 3.0 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 3.0 / Potential 3.0 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 3.0 / Potential 3.0 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 2.5 / Potential 2.5 (No change)
25. Axel Henningsson, C, Ability 8.0 / Potential 8.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 13 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 6.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
26. Jordan Besler, C, Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 3.5 / Potential 3.5 (No change)
27. August Hulten, RD, Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 7.5 / Potential 7.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 13 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 6.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 6.5 (No change)
28. Simon-Claude Thiverge, LD/RD, Ability 5.0 / Potential 5.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 12 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
29. Darian Bradford, LD, Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0
YEAR 11 - Ability 7.0 / Potential 7.0 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 7.0 (-.5 Ability)
YEAR 13 - Ability 6.5 / Potential 7.0 (No change)
YEAR 14 - Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 (-.5 Ability, -1 Potential)
YEAR 15 - Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
30. Jacob Martel, LD, Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5
YEAR 11 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 12 - Ability 4.5 / Potential 4.5 (No change)
YEAR 13 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (-.5 Ability, -.5 Potential)
YEAR 14 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (No change)
YEAR 15 - Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 (No change)
______________________________
At year 15, these players are 31-32 years old (depending on their development and position, could be in their prime or past it [unless your name is Tim Thomas, then your prime doesn’t start until 34
]). So for most players to become shells of what they were (some good players in the league from this draft, but they’re not at their peak. Not even close), it’s kinda disturbing, since this isn’t how player development works. A majority of players don’t start declining at the age of 26 (some even before that, since the physical peak is at age 22) and, as I look throughout the league, it’s not only barren in terms of developed talent, it’s also extremely young (with the average age being, if I were to take a guess, about age 24 for most teams).
Here were the players that I saw, that were over the age of 35, active in the NHL in 2037:
- Lewis Martin (Age 36) C, Detroit Red Wings – Ability 6.0 / Potential 6.0 – 5th overall pick in 2019 NHL draft
- Raphael Meier (Age 36) RW, Edmonton Oilers – Ability 9.0 / Potential 9.0 – 7th overall pick in 2018 NHL draft
- Kent Stephenson* (Age 37) G, Minnesota Wild – Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 – 26th overall pick in 2018 NHL draft
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins* (Age 44) C, Ottawa Senators – Ability 4.0 / Potential 4.0 – 1st overall pick in 2011 NHL draft
* I put the giant asterisks on these players because Stephenson was in the minors for the majority of the season and Nugent-Hopkins didn’t play a single game, simply rotting on the bench for the Senators.
But seriously, I can count the number of players over the age of 35 on one hand? That’s just not right. I don’t expect them to overpopulate like they did in the last patch, but it appears that the regression gods are WAY too brutal on players once they hit their 26th birthday (and if there’s one thing I’m going to “bitch” about, it’s the fact that a player’s peak is set to a certain age, which just isn’t realistic when looking at player development curves). Honestly, you can call Meier the Gordie Howe of this world since he seems to be the only player who is a core contributor on his team in his mid-30’s (and he was also cut by his drafting team, the Pens, at age 19).
I’m even seeing a few teams that don’t have a single player on their roster over the age of 30 (?). The Los Angeles Kings, Stanley Cup champions in 2037, only had two players over the age of 30; one of them was scratched for the whole season (the other had regressed into a 6.5 ability second line forward).
The KHL looks to be filled with older players, but most of them have withered down into players with an ability of 4 or lower. Honestly, I was lucky to find even a few players with an ability over 5 at the age of 35 or older (I even found one with an ability of 6. Take that, Father Time!). So the moral of the story: The development curve is FAR too cruel to players in their late 20’s and early 30’s. Yes, players decline during those years, but players to start declining at the age of 26 is an extreme exception, not the rule.
- I also wanted to mention, there is pretty much NO goaltending talent in this world. Granted, it’s being developed (such as in the case of Theodore McCoy), but they suffer from several things: not having enough talent being produced for the position (and some of that talent failing to develop in the first place) and they begin suffering the wrath of the aging gods once they turn 26. Goaltenders take the longest to develop and are the hardest to judge in terms of future ability, so to rope them in with the likes of a forward that could finish developing at the age of 22 is ridiculous in its own right.
If there was a way to separate the positions in terms of when they reach peak development (also include variability so every single player doesn’t stop developing or start declining at a certain age), it would help this problem out immensely.
I might simulate to 2065 (50 years into the game) and gaze into the vast wasteland that is professional hockey, but that’s a big if right now. Might stumble onto another thing I want to mention (or two) as well.