[Ciccarelli]

What I’m going to do for this post is simply observe and post general data about the draft. Don’t know if it’ll mean anything, but it might make sense, in the long run:

FHM DRAFT DISTRIBUTION:
- 1 Belarussian (In VHL)
- 106 Canadians (Majority of them in Major Junior Leagues, with about 15% of them in non-major junior leagues. One player playing in the NCAA)
- 9 Czechs (all but one on Extraliga U-20 Squads. The lone exception played -with the Barrie Colts in the OHL)
- 1 Estonian (On Estonian U18 squad)
- 14 Finns (Many of them on regional U18 squads, with the rest playing in the Mestis Junior League)
- 8 Germans (All playing in the German Minor Leagues)
- 1 Hungarian (On Hungarian U18 squad)
- 1 Kazakh (In VHL)
- 25 Russians (About half playing for KHL squads [mostly on the bench] with the rest playing in VHL or lower)
- 7 Slovaks (Two playing in the Extraliga, the rest on Extraliga U-20 squads)
- 20 Swedes (Three playing in the QMJHL, three playing for Swedish U-20 teams and the rest playing for regional U-18 squads)
- 23 Americans (Three playing in major junior, 12 playing in NAHL or USHL, one in college, and the rest playing in generic filler leagues (US High School and Western US Junior B)

- European Juniors (U18 Squads) – 18
- European Pro Leagues (And Affiliates/U20 Squads) - 54
- CHL (WHL, OHL, QMJHL) - 91
- US Leagues (High School, USHL and NAHL) – 19
- Non-CHL Canadian Leagues (BCHL, AJHL, etc.) – 16
- College Teams – 2

2013 NHL DRAFT DISTRIBUTION:

- 2 Austrians
- 96 Canadians
- 4 Czechs
- 2 Danes
- 11 Finns
- 1 Latvian
- 1 Norwegian
- 8 Russians
- 2 Slovaks
- 23 Swedes
- 4 Swiss
- 57 Americans

- European Juniors (U18 Squads) – 1
- European Pro Leagues (And Affiliates/U20 Squads) - 46
- CHL (WHL, OHL, QMJHL) - 102
- US Leagues (High School, USHL and NAHL) – 45
- Non-CHL Canadian Leagues (BCHL, AJHL, etc.) – 13
- College Teams – 6

Some observations:

- There is nobody over the age of eighteen been drafted. This is, most likely, because all the players that have any sort of promise of being NHL-caliber are being gobbled up during their draft year. This is, even though, I’ve seen examples of players who are nowhere near ready to be drafted being selected because their “true” potential is high (and a guy who has no points in 26 games as a forward in the QMJHL is considered to have NHL potential?).

- From what I’ve seen, the college level in this game is home to marginal players and players not worthy of being scouted at the NHL level, when it’s quite the contrary. The college ranks are home to plenty of draftable talent (including undrafted free agents, which the game lacks considerably. Just ask Danny DeKeyser, Andrej Sustr, Tyler Bozak, Eric Hartzell, Teddy Purcell or any other “high-profile” college athlete who developed into an NHL prospect when in college).

- The nation distribution is a bit off, specifically with Russians and Americans. Too many Russians are being drafted while too few Americans are being developed and drafted (Although that has less with Russia having far less talent being developed than it does with NHL teams being scared to draft Russians due to the KHL). The fact that Americans aren’t well represented in the draft seems to point to a lack of generating quality talent for the country (even though this year could be a fluke). There are quality players being generated, just not enough (and that’s not getting into the question of do they actually develop in the game).

- There are too many Europeans miring in generic U18 squads instead of developing in the junior teams of European leagues, or moving to the major junior ranks to adjust to the North American style of play. This is a problem specifically for Finnish and Swedish players (Russians, Czechs and Germans advance from the generic leagues quickly). It’s not that everyone is just staying at the level (a few do move on to a European team’s U20 squad or the QMJHL), but it’s not enough for them to truly “develop”.

As for the players actually being drafted, I’m going to show the “scouted” ability and potential along with their “real” potential, courtesy of the “edit player” feature:

1. Yury Morozov, LD/RD, Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk (KHL) – Ability 8.0 / Potential 12.5 (Offensive Potential: 775 / Defensive Potential: 818)

2. Jonathan Berggren, LD, Western Sweden U18 – Ability 5.5 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 825 / Defensive Potential: 791)

3. Theodore McCoy, G, Belleville Bulls (OHL) – Ability 5.0 / Potential 10.0 (Goaltending Potential: 836)

4. Denis Vasilyev, LD, Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk (KHL) – Ability 6.0 / Potential 10.5 (Offensive Potential: 746 / Defensive Potential: 784)

5. Mika Stenroos, LW, Eastern Finland U18 – Ability 4.0 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 822/ Defensive Potential: 760)

6. Jimmy Bush, RD, Regina Pats (WHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 8.0 (Offensive Potential: 686 / Defensive Potential: 754)

7. Mathieu Renaud, LD, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 7.0 (Offensive Potential: 688 / Defensive Potential: 752)

8. Tyler Robitaille, C, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 7.0 (Offensive Potential: 741 / Defensive Potential: 671)

9. Roy Pruitt, RW, U.S. National Development Team (USHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 746 / Defensive Potential: 707)

10. Andrey Tyulyapkin, RW, Metallurg Novokuznetsk (KHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 747 / Defensive Potential: 710)

11. Jeffrey Haith, RD, US High School – Ability 5.0 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 658 / Defensive Potential: 713)

12. Max Adams, LD, Saskatoon Blades (WHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 677 / Defensive Potential: 705)

13. Zack Paletta, LW, Red Deer Rebels (WHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 725 / Defensive Potential: 725)

14. Alfred Forsmark, LD, Southern Sweden U18 – Ability 3.5 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 689 / Defensive Potential: 721)

15. Geoff Wensink, LD, Kamloops Blazers (WHL) – Ability 5.5 / Potential 9.5 (Offensive Potential: 670 / Defensive Potential: 741)

16. Luca Ryan, C, Penticton Vees (BCHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 8.5 (Offensive Potential: 743 / Defensive Potential: 702)

17. Mario Schmitt, C, EHC Regensburg (Oberliga) – Ability 3.0 / Potential 6.5 (Offensive Potential: 706 / Defensive Potential: 675)

18. Jesse Ventura, C, Spokane Chiefs (WHL) – Ability 4.5 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 686 / Defensive Potential: 609)

19. Kennet Englund, C, Western Sweden U18 – Ability 4.5 / Potential 7.0 (Offensive Potential: 707 / Defensive Potential: 670)

20. Andrey Yashin, LW, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 8.5 (Offensive Potential: 679 / Defensive Potential: 639)

21. Andrey Pencheshny, C, CSKA Moscow (KHL) – Ability 3.5 / Potential 8.0 (Offensive Potential: 725 / Defensive Potential: 682)

22. Kevin Kelly, RW, Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL) – Ability 5.5 / Potential 5.5 (Offensive Potential: 671 / Defensive Potential: 699)

23. Daniil Ignashin, G, Traktor Chelyabinsk (KHL) – Ability 3.0 / Potential 8.5 (Goaltending Potential: 764)

24. Mirco Schumann, LW, EC Klostersee (Oberliga) – Ability 3.0 / Potential 8.0 (Offensive Potential: 714 / Defensive Potential: 713)

25. Axel Henningsson, C, Val-D’or Foreurs (QMJHL) – Ability 5.0 / Potential 8.5 (Offensive Potential: 684 / Defensive Potential: 635)

26. Jordan Besler, C, Carleton Place Canadians (CCHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 9.0 (Offensive Potential: 708 / Defensive Potential: 679)

27. August Hulten, RD, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) – Ability 5.0 / Potential 7.5 (Offensive Potential: 663 / Defensive Potential: 691)

28. Simon-Claude Thiverge, LD/RD, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 8.0 (Offensive Potential: 657 / Defensive Potential: 696)

29. Darian Bradford, LD, Owen Sound Attack (OHL) – Ability 5.5 / Potential 7.0 (Offensive Potential: 643 / Defensive Potential: 677)

30. Jacob Martel, LD, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) – Ability 4.0 / Potential 6.5 (Offensive Potential: 646 / Defensive Potential: 699)

A few more observations:

- Is it just me or is there a lack of talent being generated for the draft? There are several elite players at the top of the draft (that’s what I’m assuming the 800 potential symbolizes), but after the top ten, things seem to drop off very quickly. It’s as if someone drafting in the later portion of the first round is going to be lucky to be drafting someone who can fill in as a third line forward or third pairing defenseman (which is, what I’m guessing, is what the potential less than 700 symbolizes). In the second round, there was exactly one player who had a potential in anything over 700 (713 offensive potential), and that was the 31st overall pick in the draft. What that tells me is that nobody in the second round will become anything more than depth players, at best, at the NHL level. In real life, this is quite the contrary (Go ask Patrice Bergeron if being a second round pick stopped him from being a core contributor to the Bruins). In the third round, the cutoff seems to be 675 potential (with only a few players hitting it for one category or slightly going about it). In the seventh round, one would be lucky to get a player who gets a callup to the NHL here and there (the best player I saw had an offensive potential of 667, but a defensive potential of 613, limiting his upside at the NHL level). Perhaps this was a weak draft, but it still doesn’t bode well for the future of the game.

This shows to me two things: There isn’t enough quality talent being generated by the game and the AI is way too pinpoint in drafting quality players (as in the AI is focusing too much on their actual potential, unseen to the human player, than they are at actually drafting due to the potential their scouts “perceive” them of having).

- There were only three goalies selected in the first three rounds of the draft (with two being selected in the first round) and five goalies selected in the first four. There were 18 goalies selected in the draft, but the majority of those players were selected in the later rounds of the draft. What that tells me, since the AI seems pretty pinpoint in selecting players with good potential early in the draft, that the game is generating too few goaltenders that have the potential to start at the NHL level (and that’s a big if, considering whether or not those goalies actually develop).

- The draft is too top-heavy, at first glance. Not set in stone, since I’m not sure how the players will actually develop, but it’s not a good sign for long-term playability (what’s the use of scouting a guy like Luca Ryan, who gets 36 points in 53 games in the BCHL [which isn’t impressive for that level] if he’s going to get snatched up in the middle of the first round?). It looks like the AI judges actual potential too heavily in the draft instead of making an assumption of future potential based on player stats and if they have improved on those stats in the past few years, quality of the league the player is playing in, whether or not their size and style of play will be able to adapt to the NHL (ex. Luc Robitaille and those alleged skating “deficiencies,” Theo Fleury and his diminutive stature, and players like Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk playing in leagues with minimal exposure and reputation.)

And now to see if the AI over-judging current ability is the reason why prospects are signed and then cut…