[D-BacksJosh]

Originally Posted by injury log

I'm not sure how you think this works in real life. Teams sign a lot of guys out of the DR and Venezuela for nominal bonuses. I very much doubt those teams' scouts think many of those players are future big leaguers, let alone future stars. In most cases, I'd imagine the players have one or two interesting tools - good bat speed, good athleticism, a good arm, feel for a changeup, whatever. No one really has a clear idea what these guys will become at age 16, but any scout who walked into his GM's office once a month and said "hey, I've found another future All Star we can sign for $5000!" wouldn't keep his job for very long.

When I've simmed ahead a decade or two and checked the top 100 prospects list, I've typically found that 2 of the top 20 prospects are international discoveries (not the international amateur FAs). I haven't checked if that proportion holds throughout the top 100 list, but if it does, that would put 10 international finds on the list. Which means each team has, in a given year, about a 1/3 chance to have discovered, a few years previous, a current top 100 prospect. Not so bad for guys you get for free.

I see what you are saying. However there are plenty of 17 year olds in the first year player draft that have reasonable potential ratings. So I don't see why it would be harder to find a player with reasonable potential ratings just because they are a year younger.