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VanillaGorilla · 08-22-2013, 06:13 AM

Probability and sample size are oft discussed in the forum. Here we had a slight improbability: Four of four entries were granted to pitchers for this class. The chances of that happening are about 1 in 250. But wrting a narrative in the context of a simulated HOF process is more fun.

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With the Veterans Committee tabbing Josh Johnson for induction, the writers collectively acknowledged their overlooking of pitchers, previously, and sought to balance their representation, a bit.

One overlooked player was Ed Walsh. If Josh Johnson is a HOFer, then Walsh is a no brainer.

Walsh was taken by the Pirates with the top pick in the 2041 draft.

Like Johnson, he never won a WS. His 226 wins are more than Johnson (22nd, one spot ahead of Josh). His 145 losses are less than Johnson. His 3.50 ERA (81st) is also better than Johnson's (omitted) 3.72.

His 3530 K (27th, one spot behind Jim Bunning) are more than Johnson and his 983 walks are fewer than Johnson's (omitted) 1049. Yes, if there ever was an "If that guy is in, then this guy has to be in" argument to be made, it applies here (and it is so cool that the induction sim works out as such, here).

In 2060 Walsh put up an 17-8 record with an OOTP ERA of 2.59 (npa ERA+ 170) to win the Cy Young Award. Johnson had no CYAs. Walsh fanned 365 men in 274 2/3 IP that season.

He followed up with a 20-6 2061 season with 305K, but 2060 would be the only year he took home Cy Young. Walsh led the league in strikeouts both of those years.

Walsh threw 45 CG (45th, one fewer than Tim Keefe). 13 of those were shut outs (t-36th Steve Carlton)

A six time All-Star, Walsh enters the HOF at the age of 50 with one GG to his credit.

Black Ink: 38 (67)
Gray Ink: 126 (178)
HOFm: 128.5 (146)
HOFs: 47 (52)

Gorilla Composite: 3.4 (4.4)

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Pedro J Martinez was amazing. Taken by Indianapolis (the former San Diego Padres) with the second pick in the 2057 draft, Martinez takes his place in the converted tractor shed at the age of 42 yrs 104 days. He is the youngest pitcher to be enshrined in this HOF, which is amazing considering the five year wait that is in effect, now.

Martinez made his debut in 2058, at the age of 19. He got knocked around quite a bit as he learned the league. Once he learned the league, the league never learned him.

In 2059 he was 7-3 with an OOTP ERA of 2.88 (npa ERA+ 153) when he had to undergo midseason elbow surgery. Though he could not participate in the Stripes championship run, he celebrated with Roberto Alomar and the rest of the squad when they brought the hardware to Indy.

While rehabbing in AAA in 2060, Martinez had his elbow go again, before he made a ML appearance. This time he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Martinez rehabbed, but was still dropping chunks of seasons dye to health issues.

In 2067, now a Met (interesting) Pedro became the Pedro in this universe that we know from RL.

Injuries again cut into his PT, but when he was on the mound, he was never off. In 26 starts he posted a 15-6 mark with an OOTP ERA of 1.59 (npa ERA+ 277). He struck out 286 men in 181 IP, while walking 26....yep, that is a K/W ratio of 11:1. Holy wow. He won the CYA.

In 2068 he made a career high 34 starts and won a career high 22 games while dropping only 4 decisions. He struck out a career high 368 men in a career high 249 1/3 IP. He walked only 33 for a K/W ratio better than 11:1. Holy wow frick wow. He won the CYA, again as he posted his second consecutive ERA+ above 200 (2.27, 207).

2068 was a drop off....his npa ERA+ was only 193. Some years a 15-7, 2.32 line wins a CYA. For Martinez in 2068, it did not.

In 2075 he was 13-6 when elbow tendinitis shelved him in September. Though not a CEI, the cumulative effect of all of his injuries and surgeries told Pedro that at the age 36 it was time to say "Good-bye".

Pedro won 172 games (80th, one fewer than Bill Hawke) vs 115 losses (win % .5993, 72nd) in his career. He struck out 3360 men (36th) in 2270 1/3 IP (100th place is 2616....K/9 rate of 10.916 ranks 29th). He walked only 620 men in his career. He ranks 7th on the career WHIP list with a 1.06.

Pedro appeared in 6 All Star games and enters the HOF with a Koufaxian type of career.

Martinez enters the HOF in his first ballot appearance.

Black Ink: 32 (58)
Gray Ink: 159 (215)
HOFm: 116 (206)
HOFs: 45 (60)

Gorilla Composite: 3.2 (4.9)

Using the method here and applying it to RL, Pedro Martinez should be a no-brainer first ballot entry into Cooperstown.

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While Pedro was Pedro and got in on his first try, Don Sutton had been overlooked, previously. He, perhaps, was the beneficiary of the writers saying to the Veterans Committee "If you are putting in Josh Johnson, then we have to put in Don Sutton."

Sutton was selected by the Mets with the 8th pick in the 2046 draft. Like IRL, Sutton took the hill ots of times, pitched lots of innings in lots of years, and won lots of games. However, here, he pitched with a less than stellar supporting cast for the vast majority of those seasons.

Sutton enters the HOF with the most wins of anyone not already in the Hall who is eligible, 240 (11th, four fewer than Percy Coleman and 4 more than Carl Hubbell). He also enters with the most strikeouts of any eligible player, 4044 (16th, between Brit Burns and Bobby Mathews).

He also enters with the most losses of anyone in league history, 245.
He also enters the HOF having given up the most HR in league history, 616 (Bert Blyleven says "Thank you" as he still awaits his call from the Hall).

As a rookie he went 17-11 (a mark he would replicate his sophomore season) with an OOTP ERA of 3.32 (npa ERA+ 147). His 261 strikeout victims (in 256 IP) would stand as his career best.

In a career that spanned through the 2068 season, Sutton would pitch 200+ inning 14 times.

His teams only made the post season twice, and he never threw in a WS.

His career OOTP ERA of 4.23 is slightly below the league average for his career.

Sutton made more starts than any pitcher in league history, 661.

He threw 47 CG. That ties him with Rube Waddell in spot number 53 on the career list.

Sutton made one AS appearance.

As I pulled up Sutton's BBREF page I see something very cool. At this moment he is ranked 16th on the Fan Elo meter, one spot behind classmate Ed Walsh.

Black Ink: 3 (8)
Gray Ink: 185 (243)
HOFm: 65.5 (149)
HOFs: 34 (58)

Gorilla Composite: 2.1 (3.5)

As noted, Sutton pitched for a lot of bad teams. He probably didn't pitch as well here as he did IRL. It is a testament to how great a player was when his simulated achievements are not up to his RL self, yet he still finds his way to the HOF, here.

08-22-2013, 06:13 AM	#126
VanillaGorilla All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,371	Class of 2081 VBBWAA Selections, Pitchers: Walsh, Martinez, Sutton Probability and sample size are oft discussed in the forum. Here we had a slight improbability: Four of four entries were granted to pitchers for this class. The chances of that happening are about 1 in 250. But wrting a narrative in the context of a simulated HOF process is more fun. ------------------------------------ With the Veterans Committee tabbing Josh Johnson for induction, the writers collectively acknowledged their overlooking of pitchers, previously, and sought to balance their representation, a bit. One overlooked player was Ed Walsh. If Josh Johnson is a HOFer, then Walsh is a no brainer. Walsh was taken by the Pirates with the top pick in the 2041 draft. Like Johnson, he never won a WS. His 226 wins are more than Johnson (22nd, one spot ahead of Josh). His 145 losses are less than Johnson. His 3.50 ERA (81st) is also better than Johnson's (omitted) 3.72. His 3530 K (27th, one spot behind Jim Bunning) are more than Johnson and his 983 walks are fewer than Johnson's (omitted) 1049. Yes, if there ever was an "If that guy is in, then this guy has to be in" argument to be made, it applies here (and it is so cool that the induction sim works out as such, here). In 2060 Walsh put up an 17-8 record with an OOTP ERA of 2.59 (npa ERA+ 170) to win the Cy Young Award. Johnson had no CYAs. Walsh fanned 365 men in 274 2/3 IP that season. He followed up with a 20-6 2061 season with 305K, but 2060 would be the only year he took home Cy Young. Walsh led the league in strikeouts both of those years. Walsh threw 45 CG (45th, one fewer than Tim Keefe). 13 of those were shut outs (t-36th Steve Carlton) A six time All-Star, Walsh enters the HOF at the age of 50 with one GG to his credit. Black Ink: 38 (67) Gray Ink: 126 (178) HOFm: 128.5 (146) HOFs: 47 (52) Gorilla Composite: 3.4 (4.4) ----------------------------------- Pedro J Martinez was amazing. Taken by Indianapolis (the former San Diego Padres) with the second pick in the 2057 draft, Martinez takes his place in the converted tractor shed at the age of 42 yrs 104 days. He is the youngest pitcher to be enshrined in this HOF, which is amazing considering the five year wait that is in effect, now. Martinez made his debut in 2058, at the age of 19. He got knocked around quite a bit as he learned the league. Once he learned the league, the league never learned him. In 2059 he was 7-3 with an OOTP ERA of 2.88 (npa ERA+ 153) when he had to undergo midseason elbow surgery. Though he could not participate in the Stripes championship run, he celebrated with Roberto Alomar and the rest of the squad when they brought the hardware to Indy. While rehabbing in AAA in 2060, Martinez had his elbow go again, before he made a ML appearance. This time he underwent Tommy John surgery. Martinez rehabbed, but was still dropping chunks of seasons dye to health issues. In 2067, now a Met (interesting) Pedro became the Pedro in this universe that we know from RL. Injuries again cut into his PT, but when he was on the mound, he was never off. In 26 starts he posted a 15-6 mark with an OOTP ERA of 1.59 (npa ERA+ 277). He struck out 286 men in 181 IP, while walking 26....yep, that is a K/W ratio of 11:1. Holy wow. He won the CYA. In 2068 he made a career high 34 starts and won a career high 22 games while dropping only 4 decisions. He struck out a career high 368 men in a career high 249 1/3 IP. He walked only 33 for a K/W ratio better than 11:1. Holy wow frick wow. He won the CYA, again as he posted his second consecutive ERA+ above 200 (2.27, 207). 2068 was a drop off....his npa ERA+ was only 193. Some years a 15-7, 2.32 line wins a CYA. For Martinez in 2068, it did not. In 2075 he was 13-6 when elbow tendinitis shelved him in September. Though not a CEI, the cumulative effect of all of his injuries and surgeries told Pedro that at the age 36 it was time to say "Good-bye". Pedro won 172 games (80th, one fewer than Bill Hawke) vs 115 losses (win % .5993, 72nd) in his career. He struck out 3360 men (36th) in 2270 1/3 IP (100th place is 2616....K/9 rate of 10.916 ranks 29th). He walked only 620 men in his career. He ranks 7th on the career WHIP list with a 1.06. Pedro appeared in 6 All Star games and enters the HOF with a Koufaxian type of career. Martinez enters the HOF in his first ballot appearance. Black Ink: 32 (58) Gray Ink: 159 (215) HOFm: 116 (206) HOFs: 45 (60) Gorilla Composite: 3.2 (4.9) Using the method here and applying it to RL, Pedro Martinez should be a no-brainer first ballot entry into Cooperstown. -------------------------------------------------- While Pedro was Pedro and got in on his first try, Don Sutton had been overlooked, previously. He, perhaps, was the beneficiary of the writers saying to the Veterans Committee "If you are putting in Josh Johnson, then we have to put in Don Sutton." Sutton was selected by the Mets with the 8th pick in the 2046 draft. Like IRL, Sutton took the hill ots of times, pitched lots of innings in lots of years, and won lots of games. However, here, he pitched with a less than stellar supporting cast for the vast majority of those seasons. Sutton enters the HOF with the most wins of anyone not already in the Hall who is eligible, 240 (11th, four fewer than Percy Coleman and 4 more than Carl Hubbell). He also enters with the most strikeouts of any eligible player, 4044 (16th, between Brit Burns and Bobby Mathews). He also enters with the most losses of anyone in league history, 245. He also enters the HOF having given up the most HR in league history, 616 (Bert Blyleven says "Thank you" as he still awaits his call from the Hall). As a rookie he went 17-11 (a mark he would replicate his sophomore season) with an OOTP ERA of 3.32 (npa ERA+ 147). His 261 strikeout victims (in 256 IP) would stand as his career best. In a career that spanned through the 2068 season, Sutton would pitch 200+ inning 14 times. His teams only made the post season twice, and he never threw in a WS. His career OOTP ERA of 4.23 is slightly below the league average for his career. Sutton made more starts than any pitcher in league history, 661. He threw 47 CG. That ties him with Rube Waddell in spot number 53 on the career list. Sutton made one AS appearance. As I pulled up Sutton's BBREF page I see something very cool. At this moment he is ranked 16th on the Fan Elo meter, one spot behind classmate Ed Walsh. Black Ink: 3 (8) Gray Ink: 185 (243) HOFm: 65.5 (149) HOFs: 34 (58) Gorilla Composite: 2.1 (3.5) As noted, Sutton pitched for a lot of bad teams. He probably didn't pitch as well here as he did IRL. It is a testament to how great a player was when his simulated achievements are not up to his RL self, yet he still finds his way to the HOF, here.