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Look at batter's BABIP before deciding whether to extend him, release him, or pass on him altogether. I noticed a disturbing trend in my rookie third baseman's BABIP during his four seasons with me. He started out really well, providing all-star level production at the hot corner. As his career progressed, I noticed that his production was slowly declining every year. When I took a look at his BABIP, it had dropped by nearly 50 points in a 4 year span. I decided not to tender him a new contract, despite him still having mediocre production. He signed on with an AI team for three years, and started only for the first year - he hit the trading block during Spring Training of the second, and hardly started a game after that. Why? The downward BABIP trend continued, despite his contact skill remaining what it was when he first made the show.
To replace the aforementioned guy, I signed a veteran coming off a bad offensive year where his OPS had dropped 100 points. Turns out, he was unlucky that year - signed with me, returned to his career norms, and then signed a better contract with a different team in the off-season and has played well thus far for them.
Free Agents that had bad years are going to sign cheap (in most cases); determine which of them are cooked and which of them are just unlucky, and then pounce on the latter group while ignoring the former.
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