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Orcin · 08-19-2013, 08:42 AM

December 11, 2017

Subject: Winter Meetings Begin

With the winter meetings beginning today, Continental Baseball Association clubs embark on a three-day, trade-laced, rumor-saturated marathon of meet-and-greet frivolity. The light atmosphere, almost mocking in its falseness, is a stark reminder of the importance of these meetings. Show your hand and you will be burned by sparks from the inferno known as hot stove baseball. Keep too tight-lipped and you could be left out in the cold. Be wise, for championships might not be won in the offseason, but they are surely lost then!

**********

I want to add a quality starting pitcher to the rotation. I have assembled a shortlist of targeted pitchers. I contacted teams, starting with the best pitcher on my list.

• Phoenix SP Juan Munoz, age 24, 6’0” 235#, throws R, 5-star, $6.5M via arb.

Phoenix will trade Munoz (12-10, 3.41 ERA) for CL Daniel Carlson, 2B Paco Morales, CF Shawn Tanner, C Ryan Edwards, and $2M in cash. That’s quite a haul for them, but Munoz is described by new scout Ed Deck as “Hall of Fame caliber”. He would be under club control for two more seasons, but he will eventually be extremely expensive. I don’t like giving up Carlson, and they won’t do the deal without him.

• Milwaukee SP Fletcher Holmes, age 25, 6’3”, 220#, throws R, 4-star, $2.4M via arb.

Milwaukee will trade Holmes (9-7, 3.34 ERA) for Morales, Tanner, and two AA starting pitchers if I include $3.5M cash in the deal. Deck says that Holmes is “top-of-the-rotation material and at worst will be a solid #2 starter”. He is under club control for two more years. Holmes missed the entire 2016 season with a torn labrum, but he showed no ill effects last year and is rated “normal” for injuries. We got a good look at the post-injury Holmes when he beat us in the final game of the 2017 regular season. Fewer important assets leave the organization in this trade compared to Munoz (cash can be replaced).

• Salt Lake City SP Alfred Sawyer (age 26, 6’0” 215#, throws R, 4-star, $5.5M via arb.)

Salt Lake City will trade Sawyer (17-9, 4.11 ERA) for Morales, Tanner and AAA catcher Jon Howard (no cash). The Bees really want a catcher in the deal: Edwards, Howard or prospect Darryl Fletcher. I consider Howard the weakest of the three, but I really don’t want to part with any of them yet. Sawyer is under club control for one more season. Deck says Sawyer is a “strong #3 in the rotation”. He looks a lot like Graves to me, i.e. big win total because he was on a great team. Holmes was over .500 on a lousy team.

• Indianapolis SP Valentin Rodriguez (age 27, 6’1” 195#, throws R, 3-star, $ see below)

Rodriguez (15-7, 3.12 ERA) has a four-year contract with rapidly-escalating salaries of $2.8M, $5.1M, $7.9M, and a $9.5M player option in 2021. Indianapolis will trade Rodriguez and $2.5M in cash for Morales, Tanner, and one of the AA pitchers (fragile Jose Leon). Deck says Rodriguez is a “streaky guy who needs to be more consistent”. That doesn’t sound good to me. His 57% career quality start ratio confirms Deck’s assessment, although 2017 was his best season at 69%. Holmes was 72% last year.

• Baltimore SP Lou Armstrong (age 24, 6’3” 220#, throws R, 2.5-star, $ minimum)

Baltimore wants Morales and LF Hector Castro. They have no interest in Tanner. I am not ready to give up Castro. Armstrong is two years away from arbitration. Deck says he is a “back-end starter at best”. I am looking to get a more proven pitcher for Morales.

**********

Obviously, there are far more pitchers that could make this list, but these five represent each available category well: potential ace, strong #2, solid mid-rotation, proven without upside, cheap back-end with upside.

Munoz is the best pitcher in the group, but I don’t really want to pay for an ace. If he has the type of year that can be anticipated, his arbitration award will break my budget. He will be difficult to sign to a long-term deal for anything less than Longoria money.

I really want a pitcher that could slide in comfortably behind Potvin and Bowles, but still extremely reliable and capable of throwing a big game down the stretch and/or in the playoffs. Ideally, he would be a guy that could go in a game 7 without concern. Holmes and Sawyer both fit that description. Sawyer is more proven but Holmes seems to have more upside (he was the 4th pick overall in the 2014 draft). Holmes is also significantly cheaper in terms of salary right now, and I would rather give up two fragile AA pitchers and cash as opposed to a good young catcher.

Why am I willing to part with Morales and Tanner? I don’t really have a choice if I want to upgrade the rotation. It takes a great prospect to attract a quality starting pitcher, and Morales is most replaceable of my attractive assets. Rich Seaman is possibly better and certainly more versatile than Morales. I don’t have spots for both of them plus Morrison. Tanner is now expendable with the addition of Ed Harris to go with Castro, Bunney, and Bustamante – all of whom hit from the left side. Tanner is fragile, out of options, and will be eligible for a big arbitration award next year.

I will work a little harder to improve the deal with Milwaukee, but I intend to get it done.

08-19-2013, 08:42 AM	#537
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,891	December 11, 2017 Subject: Winter Meetings Begin With the winter meetings beginning today, Continental Baseball Association clubs embark on a three-day, trade-laced, rumor-saturated marathon of meet-and-greet frivolity. The light atmosphere, almost mocking in its falseness, is a stark reminder of the importance of these meetings. Show your hand and you will be burned by sparks from the inferno known as hot stove baseball. Keep too tight-lipped and you could be left out in the cold. Be wise, for championships might not be won in the offseason, but they are surely lost then! ******** I want to add a quality starting pitcher to the rotation. I have assembled a shortlist of targeted pitchers. I contacted teams, starting with the best pitcher on my list. • Phoenix SP Juan Munoz, age 24, 6’0” 235#, throws R, 5-star, $6.5M via arb. Phoenix will trade Munoz (12-10, 3.41 ERA) for CL Daniel Carlson, 2B Paco Morales, CF Shawn Tanner, C Ryan Edwards, and $2M in cash. That’s quite a haul for them, but Munoz is described by new scout Ed Deck as “Hall of Fame caliber”. He would be under club control for two more seasons, but he will eventually be extremely expensive. I don’t like giving up Carlson, and they won’t do the deal without him. • Milwaukee SP Fletcher Holmes, age 25, 6’3”, 220#, throws R, 4-star, $2.4M via arb. Milwaukee will trade Holmes (9-7, 3.34 ERA) for Morales, Tanner, and two AA starting pitchers if I include $3.5M cash in the deal. Deck says that Holmes is “top-of-the-rotation material and at worst will be a solid #2 starter”. He is under club control for two more years. Holmes missed the entire 2016 season with a torn labrum, but he showed no ill effects last year and is rated “normal” for injuries. We got a good look at the post-injury Holmes when he beat us in the final game of the 2017 regular season. Fewer important assets leave the organization in this trade compared to Munoz (cash can be replaced). • Salt Lake City SP Alfred Sawyer (age 26, 6’0” 215#, throws R, 4-star, $5.5M via arb.) Salt Lake City will trade Sawyer (17-9, 4.11 ERA) for Morales, Tanner and AAA catcher Jon Howard (no cash). The Bees really want a catcher in the deal: Edwards, Howard or prospect Darryl Fletcher. I consider Howard the weakest of the three, but I really don’t want to part with any of them yet. Sawyer is under club control for one more season. Deck says Sawyer is a “strong #3 in the rotation”. He looks a lot like Graves to me, i.e. big win total because he was on a great team. Holmes was over .500 on a lousy team. • Indianapolis SP Valentin Rodriguez (age 27, 6’1” 195#, throws R, 3-star, $ see below) Rodriguez (15-7, 3.12 ERA) has a four-year contract with rapidly-escalating salaries of $2.8M, $5.1M, $7.9M, and a $9.5M player option in 2021. Indianapolis will trade Rodriguez and $2.5M in cash for Morales, Tanner, and one of the AA pitchers (fragile Jose Leon). Deck says Rodriguez is a “streaky guy who needs to be more consistent”. That doesn’t sound good to me. His 57% career quality start ratio confirms Deck’s assessment, although 2017 was his best season at 69%. Holmes was 72% last year. • Baltimore SP Lou Armstrong (age 24, 6’3” 220#, throws R, 2.5-star, $ minimum) Baltimore wants Morales and LF Hector Castro. They have no interest in Tanner. I am not ready to give up Castro. Armstrong is two years away from arbitration. Deck says he is a “back-end starter at best”. I am looking to get a more proven pitcher for Morales. ******** Obviously, there are far more pitchers that could make this list, but these five represent each available category well: potential ace, strong #2, solid mid-rotation, proven without upside, cheap back-end with upside. Munoz is the best pitcher in the group, but I don’t really want to pay for an ace. If he has the type of year that can be anticipated, his arbitration award will break my budget. He will be difficult to sign to a long-term deal for anything less than Longoria money. I really want a pitcher that could slide in comfortably behind Potvin and Bowles, but still extremely reliable and capable of throwing a big game down the stretch and/or in the playoffs. Ideally, he would be a guy that could go in a game 7 without concern. Holmes and Sawyer both fit that description. Sawyer is more proven but Holmes seems to have more upside (he was the 4th pick overall in the 2014 draft). Holmes is also significantly cheaper in terms of salary right now, and I would rather give up two fragile AA pitchers and cash as opposed to a good young catcher. Why am I willing to part with Morales and Tanner? I don’t really have a choice if I want to upgrade the rotation. It takes a great prospect to attract a quality starting pitcher, and Morales is most replaceable of my attractive assets. Rich Seaman is possibly better and certainly more versatile than Morales. I don’t have spots for both of them plus Morrison. Tanner is now expendable with the addition of Ed Harris to go with Castro, Bunney, and Bustamante – all of whom hit from the left side. Tanner is fragile, out of options, and will be eligible for a big arbitration award next year. I will work a little harder to improve the deal with Milwaukee, but I intend to get it done.