Quote:
Originally Posted by muz
If you say so. I don't mean that to be snide; I just don't really understand your methodology. I still think you've oversimplified what is actually a complex mathematical model, but 1) maybe I'm wrong or 2) maybe the simplification doesn't make much difference in the end.
As far as too few 30 game streaks, well there were way too few -- about 40% too few. The problem we're having now is that I didn't run enough seasons to distinguish random chance or some factor in the game.
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attn bolded
The 40% differential is meaningless without the context of sample size.
For running four seasons, the odds of getting a figure 40% less than the expected result are about 23 in 100.
Run your test 40 times, and you will expect to get 53 30 game hit streaks. If you had 40% fewer than that number, 32 streaks, the odds of that happening would be 1 in 1000.
Double the 40 seasons to 80, and a result 40% less than expected is about a 1 in a million shot.
Not all 40% differentials are equal in their indicative value.