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At the start of each game, you will see that the home team is given a win probability edge of a few percent. This is about the same as retrosheet gives at the start of the game logs that they produce, and I assume is based on actual results over all the games in their DB.
Where the probability edge shown in OOTP comes from is outside my knowledge. It is certainly possible that it's based on what the game engine is designed to produce. In any event, the edge in real life isn't huge -- less than in other sports, I think.
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