Quote:
Originally Posted by injury log
- .400 hitters are not .400 hitters in every game. One day they play against Nate Cornejo and they become .500 hitters, and one day they play against Pedro Martinez and they become .300 hitters. And not only are they less likely to hit against Martinez, they're also less likely to get chances to hit, because their whole team will get outs more often.
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Just to illustrate how important this can be, if you give a .400 hitter - that is, a guy who has a 40% chance of a hit no matter what - 5 AB a game for 25 games, his chance of hitting in every game is about 13%. If instead you give him two games against an awful pitcher, and give him 6 AB with a .500 average, and two games against a great pitcher, and give him 4 AB with a .300 average, his chance of a 25-game hit streak drops from 13% to about 10%.
So the bonus he gets against bad pitchers is nowhere near as valuable as the penalty he suffers against good pitchers. If you are ignoring the variable quality of pitching, you're overestimating the likelihood of hitting streaks.