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muz · 08-14-2013, 03:13 AM

Thanks for the reply. I'm not sure your analysis is correct, though. Maybe I'm missing something.

It looks to me that you've calculated the odds of getting a hit in every one of X games (i.e. 44 out of 44, 56 out of 56, etc). But in any given season, there are about 100 or so 56 game stretches, and around 130 30 game stretches. Thus, to find the probability of getting a streak of X length, you'd have to calculate the chances of getting hits in all games of each X game stretch in the season.

Of course, because the stretches and the hitting streaks overlap, they aren't independent events. The probabilities can't just be added together. The statistics, I think, are complex.

What I find suspect isn't that the guy didn't match DiMags, but rather that he didn't routinely get more 20 or 30 game streaks. DiMags streak is ridiculous and we all know that. But the difference between a 30 game streak and a 56 game streak is huge.

To put it differently, if he had 10 games in a season without hits, the odds are not good that they would be so evenly distributed as to not allow a 30 game streak.

08-14-2013, 03:13 AM	#3
muz Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 39	Thanks for the reply. I'm not sure your analysis is correct, though. Maybe I'm missing something. It looks to me that you've calculated the odds of getting a hit in every one of X games (i.e. 44 out of 44, 56 out of 56, etc). But in any given season, there are about 100 or so 56 game stretches, and around 130 30 game stretches. Thus, to find the probability of getting a streak of X length, you'd have to calculate the chances of getting hits in all games of each X game stretch in the season. Of course, because the stretches and the hitting streaks overlap, they aren't independent events. The probabilities can't just be added together. The statistics, I think, are complex. What I find suspect isn't that the guy didn't match DiMags, but rather that he didn't routinely get more 20 or 30 game streaks. DiMags streak is ridiculous and we all know that. But the difference between a 30 game streak and a 56 game streak is huge. To put it differently, if he had 10 games in a season without hits, the odds are not good that they would be so evenly distributed as to not allow a 30 game streak.