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For me it's always just been a gut feeling. Like mpejkrm stated, sometimes I'll spend six hours setting up a full fictional league only for it to never draw me in... and sometimes I'll play every inning of every game for 12 seasons.
Generally speaking, I only play fictional. As a theoretical example, I'll just get too caught up in what Justin Verlander should be doing instead of what he is actually doing... So I've found that pure flights of fictional fancy are the style for me... That said, if I'm in a rut and the league isn't drawing me in... Then I'll usually just let the CPU simulate for a decade or so and then try to jump back in.
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