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JMDurron · 08-07-2013, 07:58 PM

Well, let's keep in mind that you're presenting a binary choice where you really have 7 different options.

1) Long-term extension after 1st year
2) Same 2nd year*
3) Same 3rd year*
4) Same 4th year
5) Same 5th year
6) Extend just before FA in 6th year
7) Let go/bid as a FA

Personally, I always let the studs play out their minimum salary seasons. Once they hit arb 1 (Option 3 or Option 2 if a "Super 2" player), I extend them through age 30, or the end of their 6 years of control, whichever comes first. I do this because each year of arbitration will generally escalate that player's salary, and *MOST* players I've found will accept deals that cover all of their arb years (and maybe some FA years) at or near their arb1 rate. That's a huge savings for arb years 2-4, even if the player doesn't completely maintain their production for that time. Doing it for every player balances out the salary risk, with individual flameouts being balanced out by having some cheap young studs under contract.

I don't see nearly as much upside in extensions before the minimum salary years are done. Those are your years to get to know the player, once arb1 comes around, it's time to pay the piper. I'd rather pay less sooner than pay more later.

08-07-2013, 07:58 PM	#3
JMDurron All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,260	Well, let's keep in mind that you're presenting a binary choice where you really have 7 different options. 1) Long-term extension after 1st year 2) Same 2nd year* 3) Same 3rd year* 4) Same 4th year 5) Same 5th year 6) Extend just before FA in 6th year 7) Let go/bid as a FA Personally, I always let the studs play out their minimum salary seasons. Once they hit arb 1 (Option 3 or Option 2 if a "Super 2" player), I extend them through age 30, or the end of their 6 years of control, whichever comes first. I do this because each year of arbitration will generally escalate that player's salary, and MOST players I've found will accept deals that cover all of their arb years (and maybe some FA years) at or near their arb1 rate. That's a huge savings for arb years 2-4, even if the player doesn't completely maintain their production for that time. Doing it for every player balances out the salary risk, with individual flameouts being balanced out by having some cheap young studs under contract. I don't see nearly as much upside in extensions before the minimum salary years are done. Those are your years to get to know the player, once arb1 comes around, it's time to pay the piper. I'd rather pay less sooner than pay more later.