Quote:
Originally Posted by JMDurron
I may have been unclear here, if so I apologize. I don't think further rambling will help at the moment, so I'll re-attack this point later today if necessary.
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I know nothing of this "rambling" you speak of.....OK, I was trying to avoid it myself, but I think I left out something in what I worte that I was thinking that you addressed.
The thing about teams shifting against pull hitters in RL, like Dunn and Ortiz, for example, is that the stats that are compiled by Dunn and Ortiz, upon which their ratings are based, come from having these shifts against them. Do you double penalize these hitters by instituting a shift on them in the simulation of RL when the resultant outcome used by the simulation is derived from the player having faced a shift IRL? This would not be an appropriate simulation of outcomes.
We need to be keenly aware of what we adjust and from what base we are adjusting.
I agree that players who demonstrate the ability to hit against a shift are not shifted on. Their overall hitting numbers are based on facing "normal" defenses, even if their tendency when swinging away is to pull. It is their ability to go the other way when given a golden opportunity to do so that results in more pulled balls being hits than if a shift was on.
A hit chart will still show them as tending to pull, because that is their tendency. Shift on them, and they bat .480. So, you don't shift and they maybe bat .290 where as the same pull hitter that can't hit against a defense efficiently hits .260, let's say.
To take that .260 hitter and bring him down to a .230 hitter by shifting in the sim would be a terribly inaccurate representation of game play. Just as it would be inaccurate to take the hit chart that shows the same ball placement by the RL .290 pull hitter who has dribbled 6 balls over a vacated 3B when he was shifted on in April (and because of that display hasn't seen a shift all summer) to make him a .260 hitter by clicking a "Shift" button in an OOTP simulation.