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I don't think anyone has done a statistical analysis of wind effects in OOTP, but Markus could probably clear it up in a single sentence.
Based on postings I've seen from him in the past, I believe the model works this way: the play result is generated but then the wind and weather have the final influence on what happens. So the wind can blow a ball out of the park that would otherwise be caught near the warning track, and it can keep balls in play that would have otherwise cleared the outfield wall.
I can't give you decimals and statistics to indicate the degree of the influence. You would have to control for individual wind speeds and not merely the fact that the wind is blowing in, out, or right/left. That would make for a lengthy and detailed project, and I personally don't think it's worth anyone's time.
But I can assure you that the effect is there and it's significant when the wind is blowing at higher speeds. If you play out enough games, you will clearly see that power hitters become more dangerous and home runs become more frequent when the wind is blowing out. And the effect increases with the speed of the wind.
So, if there is a stiff breeze blowing out for a game, I know I'm in for trouble. I need to have a starting pitcher who can keep the ball down, I need to occasionally play my outfield deep against long ball hitters or pitch around them more frequently, and otherwise I have to be prepared for a day that could be high scoring with multiple home runs.
When the wind is blowing in, especially at a decent speed, then I know the game will tend to favor my pitchers and decrease home runs. But there are NEVER any guarantees.
Last edited by Charlie Hough; 07-17-2013 at 02:42 PM.
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