Quote:
Originally Posted by rpriske
The question of pinch-hitting is a question of relative opportunity cost and is completely irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
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This is simply not so. It is keenly relevant to the essential point of the discussion, on two points:
1) Baseball isn't simply about scoring runs and scoring more runs in 162 games than any other team. It is about scoring more runs than your opponent in a discrete game, and in discrete games over the course of a season/post season.
You can score runs forever. More importantly, your opponents can score runs forever. You need to get 27 outs before you claim the win. Saberheads will be familiar with this stunningly obvious concept put forth by Bill James
(and a concept whose import was revolutionary to the study of baseball).*
This is key to the idea of what is an "optimal" line-up. It isn't only about scoring runs (defensive considerations of the players are assumed to be neutral for any exercise of this type). In the AL, it is. Put your starting 9 together in such a way that it maximizes your run output and you will win more games.
In the NL, this isn't so. The fact that one of your 'hitters' is the guy that has the singularly greatest effect on how quickly your team records the 27 outs needed to claim victory MUST be considered when constructing the "optimal" line-up to
win games. Tango's model from "The Book" did not consider this, at all.
Second point to follow, which is a larger point and will require a bit of time.