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From the sequence provided, the OP is correct that the run should not be counted as earned. What is happening, though, is that the game makes the earned/unearned distinction at the time the run is scored. The game does not go back and reconstruct the inning afterward to change earned to unearned or vice versa based on later outcomes. I think this is due to the database structure (it has to know NOW what the outcome was and can't change it later), but I could be wrong.
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