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Interesting post, lukasberger, I think you are correct, but I also think that there's more to it.
1) It's quite different thinking a bunch of round 5 players should be big time performers from thinking players into the top of round two should look interesting.
2) In actuality, if players are drafted roughly in the order of their worth, players in round 5 will not often be significant major league players regardless of whether ratings run high or low. Whether these round 5 guys have 6s or 4s for ratings, a whole bunch of players must have been better in order to be picked higher. In general, a baseball league does not add 5 significant players per team across the league each season. So the number of round 5 players making it will be a function of a) how many higher rated players crash, b) how many round 5 guys were underestimated by the whole league, c) how many round 5 guys got talent potential jumps after being drafted. Also, the steepness of the talent curve... how much more talent does the 20th player have when compared to the 40th, 60th, etc.
3) One distinction that is very tough to make -- you refer to this when you mention "the kool-aid that some draft sites give you about player potentials" -- How do the 20th, 40th, 60th players look TO THE MAJOR LEAGUE CLUBS on draft day? That is an entirely different question than asking how they pan out over the years, or how they look to the fans on draft day... and this game is meant to model the way things look to the major league clubs.
On this, I can offer one piece of indirect evidence. Until the recent rule was changed outlawing the practice, major league teams would make trades and manipulate things so as to have extra players filing for free agency, so as to gain compensation picks. Remember, these comp picks were never in the top half of the first round, they were always second half of the first round or worse, and, for the old "Type B" players simply a supplemental pick.
So, through the eyes of major league teams, late first round picks, sandwich picks, and early second round picks LOOK good enough to actively strategize for (and important enough to pass a rule against this strategizing). Thus, as I figure it, if OOTP uses a talent curve such that players into the top of round two don't LOOK to be worth having, it is not realistic.
4) A significant portion of the shock over OOTP14 draft classes involves the top hitting prospects -- the first round types. Objectively, they are not as good as in the past. This is fine, if you are starting a league and want your results to echo MLB results of the past couple years. I've heard no complaints about unrealistic results... However, it is not so clearly a positive thing for long standing online leagues to suddenly run into draft classes so much skewed away from batting eye and contact. It appears that this happens, unless you take action and adjust player creation modifiers. It's not that OOTP needs to change, but people running long time leagues and moving them to OOTP should be aware of the change and make their decisions accordingly.
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