Quote:
Originally Posted by mgoetze
So you are saying that these two players have identical value:
Player A: Contact 50, Avoid K 25
Player B: Contact 50, Avoid K 75
I'm going to put up a counterhypothesis in hopes that someone will enhance my understanding by refuting it: Player B is more valuable because he gets the same result while driving up the opposing team's pitch count.
Snepp, could you perchance repeat your experiment with good-but-low-stamina starters and horrible relievers?
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All things being equal, yes. However. in snepp's environment it is clear the lower avoid K player is more valuable. I offer that if you put the players to test in a high error environment (pick a 19th century year) the avoid K player would be more valuable as he would generate more chances for errors.
Runner at third 1 out down a run, I think I want the better avoid K 50 contact guy at the plate.
Runner at first 1 out down a run, I think I want the batter BABIP contact 50 player up, at least in snepp's test environment.