Quote:
Originally Posted by Scruff
Don't forget, the top players are also going to be the ones who had the most luck (all things equal).
I think you need to look at everyone, not just the leaders. You leaders will have disproportionately outperformed their real life ability - the ones that underperform won't be on the leaderboard.
You could have something here, but I think more investigation is needed.
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The leaders will have often overperformed their RL ability. True. The question is whether or not this overperformance is influenced by skewed historical data in OOTP that is the basis for the overperformance output.
As I said earlier, we should see about half of the players with npa ERA+ above their pa ERA+ and half with npa ERA+ below pa ERA+.
If the sim is using npa stats to determine the ratings base, then what we will see on the leader boards is a disproportionate number of players with stats that would be lowered with proper neutralization.