Quote:
Originally Posted by injury log
The Contact rating tells you what batting AVG to expect. It is based on a hidden BABIP rating and the AvoidK rating. The only thing the AvoidK rating tells you is how often a batter will strike out, so it really doesn't matter unless you really think strikeouts are terrible (they aren't, but some old school baseball people seem to think they are). If you have two batters with 50/100 Contact ratings, and one has a 100/100 AvoidK, and the other has a 20/100 AvoidK, they will both hit about .265 in a season. The 100/100 AvoidK guy is just going to ground out or fly out all the time while the other guy will strike out all the time.
|
I respectfully disagree about your statement about strikeouts. Strikeouts are non-productive outs. At least, if a batter grounds or flys out, with a runner or runners on, those runners can advance, sometimes score. Strikeouts don't provide the same bonus. A high strikeout rate is also an indicator of a high LOB rate as well.
And, let's assume a 100/100 Avoid K's player exists and never strikes out. Even if, as your example shows, he hits .265, it must mean that he consistently puts the ball in play, forcing the defense to make plays. So his outs come with an increased chance of RBI's, since any baserunners on 3rd have a much better shot at scoring. Sure, his OPS might still not be high, but he's a more productive batter. And batter productivity isn't just reserved for old school baseball guys, the sabermetricians among us like productivity just as much.