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Interesting stuff. I was able to touch base with Markus elsewhere and this is what he had to say:
"No, the only thing OOTP uses is the injury-proneness data which can be edited in the player editor. Injury proneness does only change through major injuries, and even then not always, some randomness is involved."
So this contradicts my running theory that OOTP was storing additional, hidden injury data and using it to calculate the increased chances that a player will be injured after he has first suffered an injury.
If anything, this seems to suggest that injuries are more random than we might have thought. I will continue to pay attention to injury proneness ratings and do some testing to see what I can uncover.
I continue see things that are very strange. For example, in the original saved game that I mentioned previously, I've seen a couple of players listed as fragile even though they have suffered only one minor injury in three seasons. However, they have injury proneness ratings of well over 100. One example is at 133. So that explains their fragility.
Yet there are players rated at 70 in injury proneness who have a medical record like they've been serving in a war zone for several years. This, combined with Markus' statement, seems to make it clear that injures are much more random than I figured. And the proneness ratings are not a reliable guide.
For example, another puzzling case in my game is a player who has missed 17 months due to two major arm injuries, but his arm proneness is only 111 while his leg injury proneness is the maximum of 200! He hasn't suffered a single leg injury so far, and you'd think that the proneness would be swapped for legs vs. arms given his history. Plus, he's not even listed as fragile. His overall proneness is 111. Weird stuff.
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