Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie Hough
As I'm now examining my historical leagues more closely for this phenomenon, I'm seeing many players who have clearly gone into catastrophic, recurring injury mode in just a few years of the league. All you need to do is look at their player histories, and you can see the repeated attacks of injuries that are a product of the OOTP snowball effect.
Now when I examine trades, I look at the player histories more closely, and I'm seeing many players who are doomed. I know that they're going to keep getting hurt, even if OOTP says they are durable. And as they keep getting hurt, presumably the frequency and severity will keep increasing. It's rendering a lot of players devoid of value or making them far too risky to acquire. By this I mean that it's more extreme than what you'd expect based on real life occurrences. Sure, there will always be guys with injury histories that you want to avoid, but should there be this many?
I am convinced that OOTP is taking this much too far and that these recurrence rates and increased chances are far higher than they are in real life. The problem is that I don't think there are any data sets that we could use for real life comparison. Certainly the chance data can't be out there. Whatever those percentages are in OOTP, they're pure conjecture and fantasy.
But I'll be damned if I can find as many players in real life that are suffering 6, 8, and 10 injuries in just a few seasons as what I'm seeing in OOTP. Sure, it happens on occasion, but I don't recall it happening to as many MLB players in a span of three years.
And, remember folks, the exceptions prove the rule. If you have to do a lot of work to find the 10 or 20 guys that have been plagued with injuries like this over the past 10 years, then you've already proven the point: the numbers of players in OOTP that are going through this seems significantly larger and is happening over a much shorter range of time. So it seems awfully unrealistic.
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I highly recommend that you start a thread in the Beta Forum with the focus on what you've said here (as I think it is the best explanation so far in this thread). In that Forum, you will find people who are very knowledgeable about how OOTP handles injuries, and you have a better change of attracting Markus' attention. I can see a situation here where Markus might readily tweak some existing formula, if it's just a matter of dialing down something.
No disrespect intended for the folks on this forum. I just think this specific issue is a good candidate to raise in that other forum as well.