Quote:
Originally Posted by JMDurron
For the record, I don't actually hate Mel Kiper (although I do hate ESPN's college football "coverage"), I just thought it would be the easiest comparison for many posters to relate to.
The point remains that there should be massive variance between internal evaluations and external evaluations of draft prospects, AND massive variance between the evaluations of prospects on Draft Day and the likelihood that those prospects will ever become real MLB players.
EDIT - As an aside, I don't believe that Mr. Kiper has gotten a single Patriots draft pick (in any round) right for the last 11 years running.
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its nearly impossible to exactly predict a late first round pick especially when he doesnt account for trades that will happen on draft day. later than that is a complete guess. in general anyone he has as a top 20 player, with the possible exception of QBs towards the end of that range which are very need dependant, is going to get picked in the first round or early second.
i agree with what OP is saying here. it seems crazy that of the ten highest rated osa prospects for the draft (who every other team seems to like) my scout doesn't have any of them over 2 stars. my scout usually only has five to ten prospects over four stars out of the entire draft. i almost always just go with osa now especially for starting pitchers and over the past couple seasons those are the players that are putting up good minor league numbers and getting moved up while my scout slowly upgrades his ratings.