Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveP
I believe injury proneness is assigned randomly, even for historical players, just as personality ratings are randomly assigned.
I have seen lots of threads on the subject of injury frequency, and it seems pretty well established that frequencies in OOTP match up well with known historical patterns, if you use the available settings in accord with the historical period you are playing.
I believe that when injuries occur in OOTP is a random event the probability of which, during any given play, is governed by the chosen frequency rates. Therefore, players who are playing more often are more likely to be injured.
|
I agree with you on all counts and believe the same things. I think the critical issue is whether the injury frequencies and severity are realistically distributed
per individual player.
I don't mean whether they match a player's real life injuries or player usage. I mean whether the total numbers of injuries per month, per season, and per career, along with their durations, match the real life frequencies and durations of injuries that typically happen for one player in MLB.
In other words, what is the average number of times that a player suffers an injury during an MLB career, adjusted for number of years in the leagues? What is the average length of those injuries? What is the mean of injury occurrences and durations? What are the highs and lows? What are the outliers and exceptions?
This is an important distinction. Just as OOTP uses league totals as a basis for game engine results and statistical output, it probably uses injury data in the same way. But is it focused enough on keeping individual injury output regulated in the same way that the game is tweaked and coded to keep individual statistical output in line with real life?
To me, when a player with an injury proneness of 70 out of 200 suffers 8 injuries, including 5 major injuries, in just 3 seasons, this is the equivalent of a player hitting 200 home runs in a 3-year period or a player with a 10 out of 20 power rating hitting 130 home runs in a 3-year period. It doesn't seem realistic or consistent with what we typically see from players, and while we might expect an occasional saved game with a player who hits 200 home runs in a 3-year period or a player with average power who goes wild for a few years and racks up big home run totals, we sure as hell would never expect 10 or 20 or 30 players to do these things. Yet I have numerous players in all of my saved games that pile up injuries like this.
So, I want to reiterate that I don't have the real life data to know whether I'm right or wrong in my suspicions. But I suspect that something is amiss and that individual players are suffering injuries too frequently and with too much severity compared to real life. In the end, the total number of injuries and the total length of injuries might be okay for league wide totals, but I suspect that the
individual distribution of those totals is too often skewed compared to real life. And that means that some players are probably not being injured often enough or severely enough as well. I suspect that there is a significant imbalance in the game.