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Ceej · 03-08-2013, 11:58 PM

I did 1966 and 1979 to see whether the HR logs match up with that SABR article and, well, I think it's pretty clear by now that this just isn't gonna be perfect.

I can only find 25 of the 30 ITPs the article says were hit in 1966 - that works out to less than two-tenths of a percent of difference, but it's still kind of grating. There are definitely some anomalies here - the SABR article says Mickey Mantle hit three ITPHRs in 1958, but B-R's HR log only lists two for that season (the SABR article is correct - the "missing" one came on May 9th, it's in the B-R log but simply listed there as a HR). I think based on this, we could surmise that the historical rate is probably a bit higher than what the data I'm pulling out of the B-R logs is saying. The SABR article doesn't seem to be perfect, either - it claims 31 ITPHRs were hit in 1979, but I've found 33 on B-R, plus one by Alfredo Griffin not listed on there.

I did find something else of note while working on 1979. Parks with artifical turf have higher ITP rates than those with grass. This is not really a surprise, what with it being common knowledge that the ball moves faster on turf and gets away from outfielders more easily, as a different SABR article pointed out about the higher rate of triples in turf parks. Nice to see it confirmed, though.

What I guess I'll do from here on in is crunch a couple more old seasons, then do a final post with some general guidelines/recommendations on where to set the rates for all the classic old ballparks through different eras. The numbers aren't going to be perfect but I see enough consistency in the data that I believe we can have numbers in the right, well, ballpark.

03-08-2013, 11:58 PM	#48
Ceej Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 190	I did 1966 and 1979 to see whether the HR logs match up with that SABR article and, well, I think it's pretty clear by now that this just isn't gonna be perfect. I can only find 25 of the 30 ITPs the article says were hit in 1966 - that works out to less than two-tenths of a percent of difference, but it's still kind of grating. There are definitely some anomalies here - the SABR article says Mickey Mantle hit three ITPHRs in 1958, but B-R's HR log only lists two for that season (the SABR article is correct - the "missing" one came on May 9th, it's in the B-R log but simply listed there as a HR). I think based on this, we could surmise that the historical rate is probably a bit higher than what the data I'm pulling out of the B-R logs is saying. The SABR article doesn't seem to be perfect, either - it claims 31 ITPHRs were hit in 1979, but I've found 33 on B-R, plus one by Alfredo Griffin not listed on there. I did find something else of note while working on 1979. Parks with artifical turf have higher ITP rates than those with grass. This is not really a surprise, what with it being common knowledge that the ball moves faster on turf and gets away from outfielders more easily, as a different SABR article pointed out about the higher rate of triples in turf parks. Nice to see it confirmed, though. What I guess I'll do from here on in is crunch a couple more old seasons, then do a final post with some general guidelines/recommendations on where to set the rates for all the classic old ballparks through different eras. The numbers aren't going to be perfect but I see enough consistency in the data that I believe we can have numbers in the right, well, ballpark.