Preliminary 2008 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart (continued)
First Base: Chris Brown (.277/.353/.489, 28 HR, 98 RBI) was one of our best players for most of the season. He was our player of the month for May, June, and July. He bounced back from a sub-par year in 2006, but not all the way back to his 2004-05 level. As good as he was for us last year, there is no doubt that he is beginning to decline at age 30. His VORP figures are 2004=54, 2005=60, 2006=16, and 2007=28.
The player on the left is Chris Brown. The player on the right is Mike Guy. They both play first base, and only first base. Guy bats left. Brown is a switch-hitter but he is much better from the left side, so it is not an obvious platoon situation.
Guy looks like the better player on paper. They don’t play the games on paper or a computer. If we just used player ratings and generated random numbers to see the outcome, anybody could do this job.
We know Brown plays above his ratings. We don’t know about the other “Guy” in the majors – we do know he tears up AAA. We also know that we might not have been in a position to make a late season run had Brown not carried us through the summer.
And then, there’s the money. Brown has a four-year contract that starts in 2008 at $8.5M/year. Guy will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2009 season. My plan was to use Guy’s remaining option to stash him at AAA in 2008, use him on the bench in 2009, and then begin to work Guy in during the 2010 season with only two years to go on Brown’s contract. Guy’s performance at AAA and his ratings suggest that we should accelerate that plan. My scout says that Guy is an elite hitter. Brown is good, but he is not elite. An elite left-handed hitter batting behind Morgan would be really sweet.
I plan to give Guy every opportunity to win the job next spring. I am willing to start the season with Brown and Guy splitting time at first base until one player asserts himself. If Guy wins the job, then I will have a tough decision because Brown is too expensive to ride the bench. I suspect Brown has low trade value now, and I fear waiting until he is considered an “overpaid veteran”. Maybe I should test the market sooner, but it’s risky.
Now you see why I didn’t want Jennifer to read this. We will just keep this to ourselves for now. I fully expect this to become an issue soon. And when I say “issue”, I don’t just mean in the clubhouse and dugout. I mean in this office.