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Oh we are not far off. I read some of the first studies on it, I think (was it Tango?), and the reason I am not willing to say it is ALL luck is because of the stuff in there about knuckleball pitchers and the like. The pitcher CAN have an effect on how solidly the hitter contacts the ball so it has more of an effect on the quality of the hit.
It is a factor, just not as large a factor as once was thought.
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