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Old 08-09-2012, 10:36 PM   #2
JDevil
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Houston Draft Report

It's draft time again Rig Hands! So far this year the Roughnecks seem to be focusing on picking up bats over arms, with 4 hitters and 1 pitcher picked up in the first few rounds. If I had to guess, I would say that Houston is looking to overcome its offensive woes and inability to get base runners, thus the decision to skip over some promising pitching prospects (say that three times fast!). Anyways, without further adieu, I present the 2013 Roughneck Draft review!

Round 1 (6): Danyon Krebowski 2B

I was absolutely floored by this pick, Krebowski is arguably the best all around hitter in this draft, but sign-ability concerns allowed him to drop to number six overall. It may take some extra money, but if he signs he could be a franchise player for Houston.

Pros: Krebowski has plus-plus Contact and Gap potential, above average power potential, and a pretty good eye. He isn't going to swing at a lot of bad balls, and you can expect him to get on base at a very high rate. Krebowski does not have superhuman pop by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit around 20 or so HR's a season. Krebowski's ability to get on base coupled with elite gap power and above average home run power could result in a large amount of runs being driven in. Without a doubt, Krebowski could easily become the number 1 prospect in Houston.

Cons: For a second baseman, Krebowski is not a very good fielder, mediocre would be a better description. Although he has plus range, Krebowski's arm is below average and his error rate and double play ability are merely average. Although Krebowski is fast, he doesn't know how to use it, he is an average base-runner and is below average in steals.

Sign-ability: Herein lies the problem, Krebowski is going to be TOUGH to sign. Houston is going to have to fork over some major cash to land Krebowski, and even then he is no safe bet. Still, he is a college player drafted in the first round, so let's hope clearer heads prevail and Krebowski doesn't look a gift horse in the mouth (enough cliches for one sentence?).

Overall: I would rate Krebowski as an A to A+ prospect, if he lives up to his potential he could become an elite bat and a true franchise player. Concerns about his defense should be eased by his stellar offensive production. The biggest flaw in Krebowski is that he is going to be difficult to sign. The Roughnecks went with the best player available in their first pick, lets hope they are willing to throw down enough pesos to lock him in.

Round 2 (16): Brock Smoker 1B

Houston bags another impact bat with the 16th overall pick. The Roughnecks snatched up Smoker right before Carolina could get their paws on him. I said earlier that Krebowski is arguably the best hitter in the draft, well Smoker is one heck of an argument against him.

Pros: Smoker has elite power potential, the potential for an elite eye, plus contact potential, and plus gap power potential. When it comes to hitting, Smoker excels in pretty much every department. It is not unrealistic to imagine Smoker at near the top of league leader charts in RBIs, OBP, and OPS in the future. Smoker may very well have a better bat than Krebowski, which would make signing them both a dream come true for Roughneck fans.

Cons: To say Smoker lacks defensive ability would be one heck of an understatement. Smoker stinks defensively, even for a first baseman! Additionally, Smoker is a pretty lousy runner, so don't expect many stolen bases.

Sign-ability: Great news! I won't use the phrase "sure thing" but Smoker should not be very difficult to sign. This is a real relief given the concerns with Krebowski.

Overall: Smoker does what first baseman do best, he hits...hard...and often. For all his offensive prowess, Smoker is a terrible fielder, and this is one of the biggest knocks on his overall rating. I wouldn't be surprised to see Smoker become the Roughnecks DH of the future given his glove (or lack thereof). Overall I would say that Smoker's potential should be rated as an A-, it could be an A or A+ if he had better defensive skills.

Round 3 (27): Merrill Hess 3B

Noticing a common theme yet? Merrill Hess is another talented hitter, and likely the best hitting prospect available at the time.

Pros: Hess has elite power potential (higher even than Smoker!) and elite gap potential. Hess also sports above average contact potential. Hess' fielding ability is, well, odd. He has elite range and a perfect arm, but he has a below average error rate and does not turn double plays well.

Cons: Hess is one of those guys with so much potential coupled with big time flaws. First of all, Hess has a terrible eye. Expect to see a lot of hacks from Hess, as he pretty much swings at anything that moves. One has to hope that his above average contact and elite gap power can keep his OBP decently high. Hess also has no business ever stealing a base as he is turtle slow and lacks base-running ability. Finally, as mentioned earlier, Hess makes a lot of errors and does not turn double plays as well as a third baseman should.

Sign-ability: Hess is going to be another tough player to sign. I hope he does not expect too much money, as his flaws could limit the cash Houston is willing to throw down for him.

Overall: Despite his flaws, I suspect Hess can develop into good overall player, maybe even making the occasional all star team. Hess's eye is going to be his biggest impediment, but he hits so hard that it will be difficult not to put him around the cleanup spot. Given his flaws and his above average contact potential, I see Hess as a B rated prospect, although his elite power could raise him to a B+ or even A-.

Round 4 (37): Alfonso Diaz SP

Hold on, this can't be right, a pitcher!?!?! Yep, believe it or not Houston did pick up one pitcher, but don't expect him to be the ace of the future (Evan Standbridge, your job is safe).

Pros: Diaz looks to have plus movement, as well as a plus sinker and cutter. He gets a lot of ground balls and has above average stamina. He projects to have average control and stuff.

Cons: The good news? Diaz has three pitches. The bad news, his changeup may as well not even exist. I just do not see Diaz's changeup getting much better. Without a solid third pitch, it is going to be hard (if not impossible) for Diaz to crack the rotation (unless Houston's pitching staff is truly terrible). Diaz may however be able to transition into a solid, if not good reliever or closer.

Sign-ability: Yikes, another hard sign. Houston snatched the best pitcher they could find at this spot, but with sign-ability concerns I'm not very confident he'll even make the system.

Overall: Diaz has the makings of a decent pitcher, but really only has two pitches. As such, expect to see him in the bullpen instead of the rotation. Overall, I would rank Diaz's potential as a C-, he may be a decent reliever in the future.

Round 5 (47): Dominic Crago SS

Houston adds speed and fielding here in lieu of power. Dominic Crago is a talented defensive shortstop, but he may not have enough to truly standout in the Roughnecks system.

Pros: Defense! Dom is elite in almost every defensive category except his error rate, which is merely "really good." Crago also has a set of wheels on him, with plus plus speed and baserunning ability. Expect to see plenty of steals from this kid. Dom has above average contact ability, but his real batting strentgh is that he doesn't strikeout, like...ever. Above average contact, an amazing strikeout rate, and an above average eye coupled with excellent speed may mean that Crago still gets on base a lot despite lacking in other offensive areas.

Cons: Dom has average gap power and pretty much no power at all (perhaps he will hit the occasional HR on accident). Additionally, having above average eyes and contact may not be enough for Crago to standout among other elite defenders.

Signability: Crago looks like he will not be too hard to sign, making him a nice safety pick given the amount of risky pickups from the Roughnecks this draft.

Overall: Crago's excellent defense is hampered by his fairly average offense. Still, his stellar strikeout rate and speed may be enough to get him on base regularly, if so, he could be a solid Shortstop. Overall I would say Dom has C rated potential, but he may just be sneaky enough to become C+ or even B- rated in the future. He is an interesting kid, though I fear he could get log jammed in the system.

That's it so far for the Roughnecks! Houston is taking some big risks in this draft, let's hope it leads to big rewards!
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