Quote:
Originally Posted by Goody
I think if BABIP was broken down into well hit and not well hit it would make much more sense.
High BABIP on well hit balls is mostly luck and defense involved. But the pitcher's and batter's talent is first on this stat.
High BABIP on not well hit balls is batter's running speed first and luck and defense and talent second. This would be the argument of Ichiro detractors as well, as far as his batting goes.
Pitcher has more control over whether a pitch will be well hit or not well hit than the batter does. His influence increases with the amount of pitches he has and his stuff.
If a pitcher has less pitches, the ones he does has better be mean enough to keep the % of well hit balls down. If he has a lot of pitches he can throw for strikes and they're good enough, the % of well hit balls will be down due to batters being off balance.
Every match up is so deep. Is the batter looking to guess the pitch or is he looking for a mistake pitch? Either way, the pitcher is the one dictating what the the batter has to react to.
BABIP comes into effect after the ball has been put in play. And different things factor in depending on whether the ball was well hit or not. I think as long as the stat is looked at without broken it down further, its misleading.
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Excellent post and excellent points.
My point from the get go has been the pitcher
can and does control how well a ball is put in play. Good pitchers, when they're "on", control the hitters' bats and allow weakly hit balls. Weakly hit balls, while they will find holes their share of times, result in outs. While hard hit shots will find fielders' mitts their share of the time, it's nothing a pitcher should ever count on if he wants to be successful.
From pretty much the beginning of the game, pitchers have been instructed to change speeds, use both sides of the plate, and throw strikes. If we turn back the clock 100 years to a game in 1912, if a pitcher started to get in trouble by falling behind hitters, the coach would come out and tell him, "Hey, just throw strikes. You have seven guys behind you. Calm down and let 'em hit it." That advice is still given 100 years later. Why? Because it works. No one in their right mind tells a struggling pitcher, "Throw even harder and try to strike everyone out." Sabermatricians have not come up with better advice to give to a struggling pitcher. Believe it or not, those old coaches know what they are talking about.