[Orcin]

Louisville Colonels – Draft History and Analysis

The first-year player draft is coming up next, and I thought it would be interesting to see how my first four drafts have turned out. I will list the player drafted along with what was said about him at the time, then I will [comment on where that player is today]. This is a long post, so better get a cup of coffee.

2001 Draft – three high school players taken with early picks

Round 1A (#47 overall): RF Arlen Craig (age 17, bats L), Burlington MA, 4.5-star potential, contact hitter with speed [Today: Craig is currently starting in center field for Lexington (AAA) and batting .311/.362/.434, rated 1.5-star potential, Candelaria says “a little potential, but not much”. I still think he could become a decent leadoff hitter.]

Round 2 (#94 overall): 1B Michael Sampson (age 18, bats L), Waco TX, 3-star, high contact and power potential, decent fielder, normal INT and work ethic [Today: Sampson was released in June 2003 and retired after never getting above Class A.]

Round #3: SP Dale Reynolds (age 17, throws L), Chicago IL, 2.5-star, good movement, three decent pitches, decent stamina, good work ethic [Today: Reynolds is struggling as a reliever at Class AA Dayton after missing the 2004 season with an elbow injury. He looked promising before the injury, but now rated at 0.5-stars and probably done soon.]

2002 Draft – went for college players this time

Round 1 (#29 overall): C Edward Henderson (age 21, bats L), Georgetown University, 5-star potential, #1 position player on our board, contact hitter with outstanding power and a great eye, above average catching skills with a good arm, hit .302 with 13 HR and .979 OPS against top college competition, only knock on him is his work ethic – doesn’t seem to have his mind on the game. [Today: Henderson didn’t have his mind on the game. He has never hit above .225 and is currently the third catcher at Dayton. He is rated at 1-star potential.]

Round 2 (#115 overall): CF Ramon Rodriguez (age 21, bats L), Texas A&M-CC, 4-star potential, high contact, good eye, exceptional speed, great defensive outfielder, hit .294 with .353 OBP vs. good competition, great intangibles [Today: Rodriguez is starting in CF for Dayton and hitting .272/.381/.448. He is rated 1-star and almost 25 years old. Candelaria says “career minor leaguer”.]

Round #3 (#145 overall): SS Arnold Downey (age 20, bats R), Brown University, 4-star potential, above average contact hitter, very patient at the plate, hit .309 with .359 OBP against average competition, slick fielder, average speed, great intangibles [Today: Downey is fighting for playing time as a utility infielder in AA. He is rated 1-star because his offense is “sub-par”. He is minor league roster filler.

Round #4 (#175 overall): CL Jeff “Refund” Carver (age 17, throws R), Stuart FL, 4.5-star potential, elite bullpen prospect, fastball/changeup, exceptional stuff with great movement and control, 2.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP vs. average competition [Today: Carver struggled early in his career but has finally made it to AA where he has a 1.50 ERA in limited work. Candelaria says “fuhgeddaboudit”, but I still hold out hope.

Not doing too well so far, are we?

2003 Draft – mostly college players

Round 1 (#29 overall): RF José Cruz (age 21, bats L), San Diego State, 5-star potential, contact hitter with outstanding power and a great eye, good defensive skills with strong arm, good speed, hit .300 with .820 OPS against good competition, excellent intangibles [Today: Candelaria suddenly woke up one morning and said, “Cruz sucks.” This was after he hit .320/.402/.495 at AA and .317/.380/.620 at AAA last year. So far in 2005, he is .257/.342/485 at AAA and fighting for playing time. I think Cruz took one of those famous OOTP “development hits”. He still looks like a possible backup outfielder to me.]

Round 2 (#106 overall): MR Francisco Rodriguez (age 22, throws L), Pepperdine, 5-star potential, good stats (7-2, 1.98, 1.10 WHIP, 9K/9ip) against great competition, sinkerball pitcher with 73% GB ratio and great pick-off move, great intangibles [Today: Rodriguez is the setup man for Lexington with a 3.26 ERA. He still has 4-star potential and might be on the 40-man roster next year.]

Round 3 (#137 overall): SP Jorge Merced (age 18, throws R), Culver City, CA, 5-star potential, completely dominated average competition, throws 89-90 mph fastball, screwball, undeveloped changeup, good intangibles [Today: The changeup hasn’t developed but he has been moved to the bullpen where he has a good future. He was just named AA Pitcher of the Month. He is rated BNN pitcher prospect #100.]

That’s a much better class. And before we give Candelaria too much grief, don’t overlook those international signings. Some of our best prospects from 2001-03 (most notably Dominguez and Garza) came via that route.

Now finally the 2004 Draft – it’s hard to judge these guys yet, but let’s do it anyway.

Round 1A (#52 overall): 3B Larry Marshall (age 21, bats R), Duke, 5-star potential, superb contact hitter with some pop, good defensive skills, plays all infield spots plus corner outfield, great base stealer, hit .327 with .864 OPS against great competition, great work ethic. Candelaria projects him as a Hall of Famer! [Today: Marshall missed almost all of last season with a leg injury. He just returned in early June and is hitting .185 at AA. Candelaria still says 5-star potential, but OSA says he is a complete bust. This one will be interesting. His ability to play multiple positions well is a big plus.]

Round 1A (#63 overall): SS Wilson Hernandez (age 18, bats S), Hudson NY, 5-star, sky-high ceiling, projects to be an elite power hitter, superb speed, good defense, could convert to corner infielder, OPS of 1.324 against average HS competition, intangibles are a concern, worth all of the risks. [Today: Well, maybe not. Hernandez is hitting .121 at Evansville (A) and will probably be sent down to Rookie ball when their season starts. Candelaria now says 1.5 stars and suggests that he “will require a lot of development to have and sort of career as a hitter.]

Round 1A (#67 overall): CF Gerald Blair (age 21, bats L), Kennesaw State, 5-star, a five-tool player with .993 OPS against average college competition, work ethic is a concern [Today: Blair was off to a good start at Evansville when broke his hand. He is currently on the disabled list and due back in July.]

Round 1A (#69 overall): CL Bruce “Fat Cat” Brooks (age 21, throws R), LSU, 5-star, best reliever in the draft, current rating of 3.5-stars and considered ready for AAA now, sinker/slider pitcher with 78% GB ratio, 1.49 ERA and 0.92 WHIP as a starter against great college competition, great work ethic and leadership skills. [Today: He is in the major league bullpen where he has a 4.20 ERA in 17 appearances. He is only 22 and looks like a future 5-star closer to me. Candelaria says “an elite bullpen prospect”.]

Round 2 (#75 overall): LF Juan Moran (age 21, bats L), UC-San Diego, 5-star, true superstar potential with outstanding intangibles, average defense, great speed and power, OPS of .946 against average college competition. [Today: Moran blew through A, AA, and is now hitting .307/.366/.667 in 19 games at AAA. Candelaria says 9/10 in every offensive category with 5-star potential. OSA has him rated 8/9. He sure looks like a superstar to me. The really interesting thing here? He plays Morgan’s position.]

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So, in summary, drafting is not an exact science. Our minor league system is rated #29, yet our best prospect (Moran) is not even rated by BNN because he has developed so rapidly. Marshall could still be the best of the bunch, or he might flame out and become Hernandez. Cruz was looking like Moran and then suddenly crashed. Guys get hurt too.

The trick is to know your scout. Candelaria is a tools guy. Thus, I look for “ability” in trades. It’s much easier to find ability, because there is a history to evaluate and teams don’t mind giving those guys up. It’s a lot harder to find a Moran in a trade. I let my scout point me to the possible tools guys in the draft, hoping to hit it big on one or two.

The one major player development failure so far is starting pitchers. I blame that on our low drafting position. It is really hard to get a good starter at the end of round 1. It is even harder if you don’t draft pitchers with your top picks. In case you did not notice, I have never drafted a starting pitcher above the third round. I keep taking best player available, but that may need to change.