[Charlie Hough]

Higher risk does not mean guaranteed injury. And 'higher risk' factors have been widely reported for countless activities and behaviors, but often the increase in risk is relatively low. The problem is that human perception and reasoning often overvalues the risk because people are incredibly prone to bad reasoning, fallacies, and emotional responses.

There is no doubt from everything I have examined and seen that baseball's pitch count obsession is a classic overreaction to risk data, and it's paranoid and irrational.

You have to do real risk management and determine how much you want to sacrifice performance and success for the sake of minimizing risk.

In business, you cannot achieve success without risk. And I have seen companies frightened by the 'risks' of certain investments, strategies, or considerations. They paralyze themselves into indecision or they hinder their potential success by playing to the risks rather than the potential rewards. This despite the fact that the rewards almost always outweigh the risks of a calculated decision or action.

But there is only one thing that is certain: if you risk nothing, you will gain nothing.

To me, the obsession with pitch counts is crazy. Yes, beyond a certain number of pitches, there is increased risk of injury. This is no different than the increased risk of injury from a running back getting more and more carries in football. But you don't see football coaches falling into the paranoia that baseball managers have.

In football, star running backs are going to get 25 to 35 carries in a game unless the score gets out of hand or the results aren't there. And, yes, running backs tend to get hurt, and they don't tend to have long careers of sustained stardom. But that doesn't stop coaches from using them as much as possible, and it doesn't stop running backs from wanting the ball as much as possible.

The idea is to WIN and to get as much as you can out of your talent. Even for the running backs, they need to get as much as they can out of their bodies because a professional sports career is finite. You DON'T want to leave money or opportunity on the table for the sake of avoiding risk. It's understood that you're going to take punishment, get hurt, and face the risk of serious or career-ending injuries. But you DO NOT back down from carrying the ball or wanting it as much as they will give it to you.

Baseball pitchers should be handled no differently, and they should demand the same. The only real risk to a pitcher is an arm injury. Other injuries are far less frequent or serious. And arm injuries continue to take place at significant rates, just like they always have. They still happen very frequently despite pitchers being kept on strict pitch counts throughout their careers.

From a physiology and anatomy standpoint, throwing a baseball repeatedly at high speed and with spin is risky. It's unnatural, it puts tremendous strain on the arm, and if you really want to avoid the risk of an arm injury, you should NEVER engage in this activity.

But we're talking about baseball here, so you HAVE to engage in that activity. Arm injuries, however, are not the end of the world, and they're not the end of a career like they once were. Look at the litany of players who have had successful arm surgeries and repairs. Guys go on the DL and come back all the time. And they come back with a frequency and at a higher rate of success than they ever did in years past.

Look at the guys like Frank Tanana or Jamie Moyer, who can come back from major injuries and learn to pitch after losing much their arm strength. Look at the advancements in physical rehabilitation, training, and conditioning.

In light of all the considerations, it seems obvious to me that the approach that baseball has taken just doesn't make sense. To my knowledge, this level of concern and obsession is not seen in any other sport. Star NBA players play 40 minutes of every 48-minute game. They play 82 games per season, plus playoff contests, and they collide with other players, dive for balls, and get fouled. It's a vastly more physical game than baseball, and it brings serious risks of far more types of injuries than pitchers face.

Basketball stars get injured sometimes. It's all part of the risk, but you don't see NBA coaches limiting star players to 25 minutes per game to try and keep them healthy. Statistically, this would automatically reduce the risk of injury, but the idea is to WIN. You keep your best players on the court for as long as possible while giving them occasional rest to keep them fresh.

No, you're not going to have your star player play every minute of every game. And you don't need to have your pitcher pitch every inning of every game. But if you're going to pull pitchers based on a strict count, with almost no regard for the score, the situation, or anything else, then this is crazy. And that is what I see happen repeatedly at all levels of professional baseball. It's absolutely unbelievable to me.