June 15, 2012
The Coach flipped open his laptop on the desk of his Marriott suite and began typing in a file entitled Book_Notes.doc saved on his Windows desktop:
6/15/2012 (65 games into first season)
Several observations to add to strategy section of book:
- Need starting pitchers who have low HR/9 rates, or at least they can't be high. The ideal System SP would be a decent long reliever. [The Coach pulls up BaseballReference.com, browses through 2011 statistics, then continues typing.]
Shawn Camp's rates in seasons 2008-2011 are just about perfect. Something around .7 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9. These guys should be relatively inexpensive; the Cubs signed Camp as a free agent in 2012 for $550,000.
Josh Outman is another with good System career rates, and he is unlikely to be paid much in arbitration after this season and would have low value on the market / would be easy to obtain.
Alex Cobb is another. The HR rate is the key rate. The System can adjust to baserunners. With one baserunner on and a two run lead with at least one out in the inning, for example, you can leave the starter in there if he does not surrender many HR's. Then if he gives up a walk or a hit, it changes the situation and you can adjust by bringing in a high-leverage pitcher. However, if he gives up a home run, it is a tie game and there was no opportunity to bring in a high-leverage pitcher.
- At the risk of stating the obvious, a starting pitcher's rates coincide in certain ways. A pitcher with outstanding control (or a particularly high K rate) can afford to give up slightly more home runs, as he is unlikely to have too many base-runners. A solo home run in the first three innings of a game, while unfortunate, does not lose the game. In fact, a one-run change has only a modest effect on the likely outcome of the game. Beavan so far this season has been a very effective SP for us despite giving up 1.1 HR/9 (not bad, but not fantastic) and having a K rate a little below ideal (4.89 K/9). That is because his walk rate is superb (1.22 BB/9). Pitchers with low K rates but good walk rates are likely to be cheaper than pitchers with high k rates but mediocre walk rates, meaning these types can be targeted to be System SP's. But ultimately, the higher an SP's HR rate, the more risky and inconsistent his outings will be, because he will have to be removed from the game if the threat of a home run becomes catastrophic to the team's chances of victory, which can be as early as the second batter of the game.
- The lefty ML and HL men should have good control. The System cannot afford to give up a roster spot to pitchers who are slated to come in to face just one or two LHB and walk him/them without recording an out. This puts a strain on the rest of the staff to record 27 outs that day while keeping enough pitchers fresh to pitch in upcoming games.
- Statistical analysis of pitchers becomes fraught with error, as different pitcher's ERA's (for example) gravitate toward each other. This is because the best System pitchers (HLs) disproportionately face the best hitters, and the worst System pitchers consistently face the worst hitters. For example, I would venture that 2/3rds of all the hitters Craig Kimbrel faces are above-average hitters. He rarely pitches to #8 and #9 hitters. This is intuitive. For example, at the beginning of an inning late in a tie game, The System dictates that Kimbrel may come in if the middle of the order is due up, but a lower-leverage pitcher is likely to come in if the bottom of the order is due up.
- Having a second quality traditional SP on staff in Mark Buehrle made a tremendous difference in my ability to keep our staff rested. I'm even tempted to move down to 12 pitchers from 13, and could certainly do so during any stretch in which there are a decent number of scheduled days off. Besides, with a couple of extra arms in AAA, we could rotate arms down without running afoul of the 10-day rule [note: OOTP does not enforce this, but I abide by it because failure to do so would be an unrealistic advantage for The System. The rule is that a player sent down to AAA cannot be called back up within 10 days].
- I am firmly convinced that The System reduces chances of injury to pitchers. Looking around the league, starting pitchers are getting injured at alarming rates. There are few starting pitchers who make 30+ starts or pitch 200 innings. Meanwhile, relievers seem to hold up a lot better in general. Also, The System allows us to give pitchers nice breaks to save their arms. For example, due to a couple of scheduled off days and some blowouts, Kimbrel has thrown around 40 pitches (two appearances) in the past 7-8 days, and that's the high end for our HL guys. Venters hasn't pitched in a week. League has thrown 13 pitches during the past week. Starting pitchers don't get these kind of breaks during the season unless they are already injured. Roy Oswalt, our workhorse, has thrown just 120 pitches in the past 15 days, less than half of what he'd have thrown as a starter over a 15 day stretch (which would be three starts at 90+ pitches per start). Meanwhile, there are quite a few starters who have thrown 200+ pitches in the past six days.