May 14, 2012
The Mariners may be for real. At 22-14, they lead the AL West, and they just finished a sweep of the Yankees yesterday. How did they get here?
First, only one pitcher on the team is projected to pitch more than 145 innings this year. That is number one starter Blake Beavan, who is the only starter in the three-man rotation who is actually a starting pitcher by trade. He has even been called on to pitch through five innings a couple of times when the Mariners got out to an early lead and the bullpen needed rest. To date, he has started 13 games and pitched 43 innings for an average of 3 1/3 IP per start. The Coach thinks this is just about perfect. Beavan is 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA.
Kevin Millwood, who pitches in low-leverage situations, is second on the team with 32 IP over 14 games (zero starts). You can tell he pitches in low-leverage situations because his record is 0-0, although he does have 3 saves from picking up 3-inning saves in blowout wins.
Contrast Millwood with Craig Kimbrel, who has thrown just 17 innings with Seattle over 11 games but already has four wins plus one save. Or Shawn Kelley, who has also pitched 17 innings and is 2-1 with four saves.
These numbers are just a primer, up next is getting into the games and seeing how The System works. First, here is the Mariners pitching staff, divided into five roles that make sense within The System, with talent level as judged by the team's lead scout (with scouting accuracy on very high). Note that no pitcher on the staff has an assigned role of SP in game. They are all MR's or CL's.
Starting Pitchers (SP's)
RHP Blake Beavan (6 stamina, 2.5 stars)
RHP Tom Wilhemson (3 stamina, 3.5 stars)
RHP Hisashi Iwakuma (3 stamina, 3 stars)
High-Leverage Pitchers (HL's)
RHP Craig Kimbrel (2 stamina, 4.5 stars)
RHP Brandon League (3 stamina, 4.5 stars)
LHP Jonny Venters (3 stamina, 4.5 stars)
RHP Shawn Kelley (3 stamina, 3.5 stars)
Medium-Leverage Pitchers (ML's)
RHP Roy Oswalt (7 stamina, 3.5 stars)
LHP George Sherrill (2 stamina, 2.5 stars)
RHP Hector Noesi (6 stamina, 2 stars)
Low-Leverage Pitchers (LL's)
LHP Jason Vargas (7 stamina, 1 star)
RHP Kevin Millwood (6 stamina, 1 star)
No-Leverage Pitchers (NL's)
RHP Erasmo Ramirez (6 stamina, 1 star)
LHP Charlie Forbush (6 stamina, 1 star)
These categories may be self-explanatory, but just to be sure: HL's come in to the game when the game is really close, and generally when runners are already on base. ML's come in when the game is still close enough that the team behind has a good chance of coming back, say a two run difference. They will often, but not always, give way to an HL if multiple runners reach base or if there is a better matchup out of the bullpen (i.e. lefty-lefty). ML's will probably pitch the most innings and despite coming out of the bullpen may be the closest thing The System has to starting pitchers. LL's generally pitch when the game isn't very close but there is still at least a decent chance of a comeback. For example, when the team is losing by four runs in the third or fourth inning. NL's generally pitch when there is very little chance of the pitcher affecting the outcome of the game, such as when one team is winning by 5-6 runs. NL's just need to be able to complete innings with any respectable level of performance and thus can be replacement-level pitchers. They may find themselves getting demoted to AAA if they throw a lot of pitches and will be unavailable for a few days. This is one of the reasons there are 14 pitchers listed above despite the fact that The Mariners generally carry 12 or 13.
Any time the score changes, the pitcher in the game may change to reflect the difference. The idea is to never give games away but also to not waste the most valuable pitchers' innings. Oh yeah, and to save money by not having to pay for starting pitchers, who are arguably the most expensive players in baseball.
Total payroll of all the above pitchers: less than $25 million.
Coming up next is a chance to see how this all works on game day.