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I think it depends on what you mean by "mistake." It does appear that the AI *knows* a player's true potential at the time of the draft. I'm running a test sim for something else, so I'd thought I'd throw testing this in too.
For my other testing purposes, I have a lot more feeder teams than I need. As a result of that, my latest draft had way more 70-80 potential guys than should ever be necessary. I ran the draft with scouting on at normal. After the draft, I turned the scouting system off and skipped ahead a day. I checked the draft log to see what the AI had drafted. It was what I would expect to see if the AI knew the players' potential ratings: everyone in the first round was at least a 70. I'd say there were mistakes made in the types of players taken. I wouldn't draft a firstbasemen with David Eckstein like power potential in the first round whose value was based on 1st base defense and speed. But, the AI did.
I simmed forward to the beginning of the next year and rechecked the draft log. A lot of the players were already seeing downgrades in their potential rating. Nothing particularly big at that point, but they were occurring.
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