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I will have to check a few details with Markus tomorrow, as it is pretty late here in Germany. I will then answere in more detail but a short answere:
Ratings in OOTP (no matter of the platform) are based on stats from the season in question and 3 past seasons (weighted). OOTP is not a strict replay game like SOM or DMB, it is a baseball simulator that sets a realistic enviroment but stuff like trades or injuries can alter the results. But e.g. the 2011 Red Sox (Ratings are based on past seasons and projections) will do pretty good most of the time but from time to time bad things will happen, just like in real life.
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